Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula

Looking at the WV loop this morning I see what the models are alluding to, but I still think they're overblowing the "stall and sit" scenario.

You have a clearly-defined trough diving towards the gulf coast. In the last 12 hours it has gone from roughly the Texas Panhandle to the TX/LA border, which is pretty good progression! It is also deepening in axis, which inidicates that amplitude is rising there, and height falls should be occurring in front of and to the east of it.

The storm's outflow to the north is being pulled dramatically, to the point that its all the way north to Cedar Key, and is highly asymmetrical. The N and NE flow component of the upper air pattern causing this is clearly visible.

The first low is over Ohio, and headed towards the seaboard.

The current surface map clearly shows the frontal boundary expected to plow through the gulfcoast panhandle area tomorrow, and our forecast holds this out as well - we are expecting a ten degree drop in daytime highs, but the front is expected to come through tomorrow during the morning daylight hours. If it does, this would be, I'd expect, the steering element that picks up WIlma.

As it does the fairly weak blocking high over the FL/AL/GA border should be forced eastward and out, clearing the path for WIlma to move to the north and east.

The exact path will depend on that trough axis, and whether the impulse of amplification that is driving it is strong enough to force a more N-S axis rather than a weaker E-W one. To the extent that the axis tilts more to the N-S, Wilma should move more poleward.

Some of the models appear to be forcasgint a MISS by this trough entirely, instead forcasting that she will not get picked up until the one FOLLOWING that arrives. I don't know if I buy that scenario - the boundary behind the current trough doesn't look all that healthy this morning, while the one in front of it looks quite energetic, and is being driven south with quite a bit of vigor.

Of course yesterday, I thought it would get here this evening. Obviously not at this point....

Still, I would not take your eye off the ball anywhere along the west coast of Florida and particularly into the Keys. While the interaction with land is very likely to significantly weaken the storm, even a much weaker Wilma can still do significant damage......

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