12Z GFS still indicates the stall scenario. That is not a good model for intensity, so I would take its reintensification of Wilma after 48 hours over land with a grain of salt. The inner-core of Wilma would likely be permanently destroyed if it spent that much time over land. The 12Z CMC shows Wilma slowing down on or just off the northern coast of the Yucatan, a scenario that would not produce as much weakening as the 12Z GFS.
Wilma looks like your garden variety cat 4 hurricane, if there is such a thing. A large and very well-defined eye on satellite, but the convection is rather warm and not quite symmetrical, so no indication that it is deepening that much.
Regarding 99L, they did a test SHIPS run at 12Z on it and the results suggested only marginal intensification at best. The initial track output suggested movement towards the Bahamas through 72 hours, but then recurvature into the Atlantic.
Edit: NOGAPS keeps Wilma over the Yucatan for about 36 hours, which would also result in signficant weakening.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Fri Oct 21 2005 01:12 PM)
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