Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula

..Keep it up, it's a good product you're creating there... In fact, you should write some code to automate that process if possible - so that one day, when you have your own meteorology domain you can have it as an in situ source.

..Looks like the time over land hypothesis is winning over the 'just barely skimming and staying off-shore'. I was torn between the two late last night, but admittedly tended to side with the barely off shore thinking... That was only given to the short-term concerted 340degree motion, however, between appr. 9pm and midnight.. I'm a big proponent of weightier data contributions, so the kicker becomes the fact that the NOAA dropsonde mission this morning has demonstrated the ridging in the Gulf has more integrity than the 06z guidance believe (may already have been noted by some other posts.. I've been out of the loop all morning). For intensity enthusiasts, the possibilities appear to be limited now to 2:
1) It stalls and rakes the coast for a day or 2 before resuming a gentle NE motion - prior to an acceleration..
2) It moves on inland at a slow rate of speed and lingers in suffication. But...I'm sure you've all covered this...

..Down the road a piece, NEW CONCERN :
"A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE
FORMING... AND SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS."

..I concur.. I noted yesterday that this wave had some subtle signature of cyclonic curl to it but didn't bother to bring it up because of the package of interest at hand. At the time the U/A winds were unfavorable; however, the system was moving W and still is, and we knew at the time that it was about to move up underneath a favorable U/A. Also, (believe it or not) the areas of the "central" Caribbean could stand a little SST shake-up as they are running about +1.5 SST anomaly (in keeping with the Atlantic MDO), and since it's been a good while since there's been any processing in that specific are, the actual content is impressive enough: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005293ca.jpg

..Anyway, this wave is now moving up underneath a fairly strong U/A ridge expression that will likely be increasing in stature over the next 3 to 5 days, based on 200+mb analysis of the available global based guidance; those being UKMET, NOGAPs, ECM and GFS that I've observed. They all indicate light winds and anticyclonic potential at and above this level, which are all a good fit of larger scale synoptics.

..I believe it is a good bet that a new TC will be evolving of this impulse. Supposing so...after 4 days there will be large scale synoptic changes that will affect the western Caribbean... A full latitude trough is slated to evolve in eastern N/A during the early-middle part of next week, and early indications are that it will subtend a lower height field and SW mid and U/A wind components at and W of 75 longitude in the Caribbean. This would connote a shear axis aligning NNE to SSW; to enter that would be a detriment to "Alpha", should that be the case.

This is all intended as an early plausibility so please don't throw the gallows at me if it doesn't pan out. I just thought it amusing that Accuweather came on Fox News the other day and said that Wilma "will be the last hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this season". We'll see, but, if this next system evolves, they may end up right for the wrong reasons (I hate that) because large scale synoptics "at this time" appear as though indeed, they would not allow it (more likely) to get W of ~75 lon. Time will tell, but the models were premature about the Wilmas potential recurve into the westerlies, so it may just be that there is a meridianal bias to the current middle range guidance - which could indicate a W correction...

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