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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

after midnight
Mon Oct 14 2002 12:29 AM

lots of convection going off where the broad center of the disturbance is located, hard to tell exactly what is down there. i'm fairly confident that this is a depression, and will probably be a tropical storm on recon, if sat presentation and obs ahead of the system dont have it there by midday tomorrow. also, seems to be progressing northward at enough speed so that i doubt it will fail to phase in ahead of the soon to be coastal low. model consensus still east of florida, but the ones with the best initializations tend to take it very close by monroe dade broward and palm beach counties. should get some weather out of this, at least. the further north it gets, the more shear will impact the system (though baroclinic deepening may counterbalance). short term intensification will determine whether this is a gusty tropical storm or a deepening hurricane when it reaches cuba on tuesday, the florida straits tuesday afternoon, and blasts up by hatteras on wednesday. probably not going to do any purely tropical deepening north of 25N, and it should be up there in just over 36 hours.
for anybody of you who like to ponder things that may happen down the road, the basic setup which has given us this soon-to-be marco is going to persist through next week, and maybe spin off something else by next weekend.
HF 0428z14october

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Golly Kyle	MikeC	Mon Oct 14 2002 12:29 AM
Re: Golly Kyle	Stuart Dave	Mon Oct 14 2002 05:07 PM
Temp Tangents	Bill	Mon Oct 14 2002 05:19 PM
Re: Temp Tangents	Steve H.	Mon Oct 14 2002 05:42 PM
Re: Temp Tangents	joepub1	Mon Oct 14 2002 06:10 PM
Re: Temp Tangents	WXMAN RICHIE	Mon Oct 14 2002 08:27 PM
never cut and dry	HanKFranK	Mon Oct 14 2002 05:38 PM
Re: never cut and dry	HanKFranK	Mon Oct 14 2002 05:39 PM
Invest 95L Possibilities	Ed D at HRMC	Sun Oct 13 2002 09:24 PM
Hey Joe	GaryC	Thu Oct 10 2002 05:47 PM
Re: Golly Kyle	GaryC	Thu Oct 10 2002 05:45 PM
GARYC	WXMAN RICHIE	Thu Oct 10 2002 09:25 PM
kyle perks up a bit	HanKFranK	Thu Oct 10 2002 10:11 PM
Re: kyle perks up a bit	joepub1	Thu Oct 10 2002 10:56 PM
Kyle...	Steve	Fri Oct 11 2002 01:03 AM
Re: Kyle...	Kevin	Fri Oct 11 2002 08:56 AM
Re: Kyle...	Steveunplugged	Fri Oct 11 2002 11:48 AM
Re: Kyle...	BabyCat	Fri Oct 11 2002 07:29 PM
Re: Kyle...	tom5r	Fri Oct 11 2002 12:19 PM
trailer to kyle?	HanKFranK	Fri Oct 11 2002 02:08 PM
Time to look south	joepub1	Fri Oct 11 2002 11:24 PM
Re: Time to look south	57497479	Sat Oct 12 2002 08:32 AM
Re: Time to look south	Mary	Sat Oct 12 2002 10:12 AM
Re: Time to look south	57497479	Sat Oct 12 2002 07:27 PM
nhc test model runs on 95L	Frank P	Sat Oct 12 2002 08:44 PM
From the Cyber Cafe at Holmes Regional	Ed D at HRMC	Sat Oct 12 2002 10:27 PM
Re: From the Cyber Cafe at Holmes Regional	Frank P	Sun Oct 13 2002 09:21 AM
Re: From the Cyber Cafe at Holmes Regional	LoisCane	Sun Oct 13 2002 10:44 AM
Re: From the Cyber Cafe at Holmes Regional	57497479	Sun Oct 13 2002 09:56 AM
ack	HanKFranK	Sat Oct 12 2002 11:26 PM
Re: ack	recmod	Sun Oct 13 2002 09:23 AM
Re: ack	HanKFranK	Sun Oct 13 2002 11:36 AM
Never count on a Field Goal	LoisCane	Sun Oct 13 2002 02:46 PM
Re: Never count on a Field Goal	Hurric	Sun Oct 13 2002 09:40 PM
Hurric- a reply	joepub1	Sun Oct 13 2002 10:41 PM
South Florida mentioned to stay alert	WXMAN RICHIE	Sun Oct 13 2002 10:18 PM
Re: South Florida mentioned to stay alert	57497479	Sun Oct 13 2002 10:52 PM
after midnight	HanKFranK	Mon Oct 14 2002 12:29 AM
Re: South Florida mentioned to stay alert	Steve H.	Sun Oct 13 2002 10:45 PM
Re: South Florida watching after the Game:)	LoisCane	Mon Oct 14 2002 01:20 AM
NOTHING YET	WXMAN RICHIE	Mon Oct 14 2002 05:10 AM
Re: NOTHING YET	joepub1	Mon Oct 14 2002 07:54 AM
Runs on TD #14	garyb	Mon Oct 14 2002 09:23 AM
STDS- here we go!	Bill	Mon Oct 14 2002 09:23 AM
Re: STDS- here we go!	Mary K.	Mon Oct 14 2002 10:31 AM
marco	HanKFranK	Mon Oct 14 2002 10:43 AM
Re: marco	doug	Mon Oct 14 2002 12:13 PM
Re: marco	Steve H.	Mon Oct 14 2002 01:06 PM
Re: marco	Bill	Mon Oct 14 2002 02:04 PM
Re: marco	Stuart Dave	Mon Oct 14 2002 02:14 PM
Re: marco	Brett	Mon Oct 14 2002 03:01 PM
Re: marco	matty	Mon Oct 14 2002 02:24 PM
Re: marco	sj7611	Mon Oct 14 2002 02:34 PM
TD 14 (Marco?)	Justin in Miami	Mon Oct 14 2002 02:51 PM
Marco???	Richie at work	Mon Oct 14 2002 02:04 PM
Marco???	Richie at work	Mon Oct 14 2002 12:02 PM
Re: marco	Justin in Miami	Mon Oct 14 2002 11:59 AM
Re: STDS- here we go!	meowmix12	Mon Oct 14 2002 10:40 AM
slower development	anon, keith	Sun Oct 13 2002 11:54 AM
Re: slower development	Darcy	Sun Oct 13 2002 12:39 PM
Re: slower development	anon keith	Sun Oct 13 2002 01:08 PM
Kyle's remnants...	Steve	Sun Oct 13 2002 09:54 AM
Get well soon ED...	Steve	Sun Oct 13 2002 02:34 AM
NOTHING YET	WXMAN RICHIE	Sun Oct 13 2002 07:49 AM
WEST CARIBBEAN	57497479	Sun Oct 13 2002 09:18 AM
Re: nhc test model runs on 95L	joepub1	Sat Oct 12 2002 10:25 PM
Re: Time to look south	Steve H.	Sat Oct 12 2002 10:35 AM
Re: Time to look south	STUART DAVE	Sat Oct 12 2002 11:11 AM
kyle passes the baton	HanKFranK	Sat Oct 12 2002 11:21 AM
Re: kyle passes the baton	Mary K.	Sat Oct 12 2002 11:42 AM
Re: Time to look south	WXMAN RICHIE	Sat Oct 12 2002 06:51 AM
Here's the link...	Steve	Fri Oct 11 2002 01:07 AM
TROPICAL STORM AGAIN	WXMAN RICHIE	Fri Oct 11 2002 04:43 AM
Re: Golly Kyle	GaryC	Thu Oct 10 2002 05:42 PM
A Kyle Update	VolusiaMike	Thu Oct 10 2002 05:07 PM
Re: A Kyle Update	bill-bo	Thu Oct 10 2002 05:25 PM
Re: A Kyle Update	tom5r	Thu Oct 10 2002 05:24 PM
Re: A Kyle Update	tom5r	Thu Oct 10 2002 05:25 PM
Re: A Kyle Update	tom5r	Thu Oct 10 2002 05:27 PM
Re: A Kyle Update	joepub1	Thu Oct 10 2002 05:43 PM
Re: Golly Kyle	Stuart Dave	Thu Oct 10 2002 05:03 PM
Link to data Bouy	Cocoa Beach	Thu Oct 10 2002 03:28 PM
Re: Golly Kyle	STUART DAVE	Thu Oct 10 2002 03:09 PM
Re: Golly Kyle	not-loged-in	Thu Oct 10 2002 03:30 PM
Re: Golly Kyle	VolusiaMike	Thu Oct 10 2002 01:59 PM
Re: Golly Kyle	GaryC	Thu Oct 10 2002 01:23 PM
Re: Golly Kyle	LoisCane	Thu Oct 10 2002 03:36 PM
Re: Golly Kyle	GaryC	Thu Oct 10 2002 01:15 PM
cirrus blow off...	LoisCane	Thu Oct 10 2002 12:05 PM

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