Quote: 00Z GFS still suggests landfall near Ft. Myers around 12Z on Monday. The GFS has been further north of most of the other models in the last couple of runs, so keep that in mind:
Actually no, the GFS shows a Sarasota County landfall.
That's fairly far north of the consensus (but in line with my thinking).
The map I am looking at suggests landfall further south, actually probably between Ft. Myers and Charlotte Harbor.
Regarding the models that go into the forecast, none of the 00Z models go into the 11pm advisory. Usually, no GFS output from 00Z is available until 0330Z (11:30 PM EDT). The GFDL runs off of the GFS and is available even later. Even if it was available sooner, the NHC would use the 18Z runs for the 11pm advisory because they have to prepare a whole suite of products and they would not have time to make last minute changes based on newer but incomplete model runs.
Regional models like the NAM are available sooner, but NHC does not use those, or at least they never cite them in their discussions.
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