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Invest 95L near 100% chance to develop, advisories likely to come later today. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm Watches are possible later tonight for parts of the Windward islands of the Caribbean. Area east of that 30% chance. 94L 30% chance.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 303 (Idalia) , Major: 303 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 303 (Idalia) Major: 303 (Idalia)
Td#2
ADV#1 10:00 pm EDT
9.1N 41.9W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
W at 21 mph
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: late october
      Thu Oct 24 2002 05:24 PM

Kenna is amazingly impressive! I can barely think of a word for this type of event, latest recon shows pressures down to 918 millibars. I think 916 is a category 5, so another pressure drop may do the job. What is even more impressive is that this IS NOT because of El Nino. This is simply due to a tropical disturbance in the right place at the right time. A negative MJO, a tropical disturbance, and a ridge right over the disturbance can lead to something big very quickly. Mexican Coast will be war zone...if Kenna doesn't level off too much before landfall damage will be similar to what Gilbert did to the Yucatan in 1988. Horrific.

There has been a lot of fanfare concerning Caribbean development in the next 2-5 days, and I think it may be valid. There is currently some pretty strong, disorganized convection north of Panama. There is also numerous amounts of energy along 10N moving into the area. This combined with the MJO negative moving in should lead to some development in this area in 3-4 days. Also, I'll betcha anything that Kenna is teleconnecting to any storm that develops in the Caribbean will have a NE curve eventually. I'm not going any further than that.

Kevin

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Fourteen's Future MikeCAdministrator Thu Oct 24 2002 05:24 PM
. * * Renewed rumblings Bill   Sat Oct 19 2002 12:13 PM
. * * the end HF (unlogged)   Sun Oct 20 2002 07:26 PM
. * * s florida troy2   Mon Oct 21 2002 11:50 AM
. * * Wave East Of Islands Steve H.   Tue Oct 22 2002 07:45 AM
. * * Re: Wave East Of Islands 57497479   Wed Oct 23 2002 05:59 AM
. * * kenna HF (unlogged)   Wed Oct 23 2002 10:37 PM
. * * Re: kenna Steve H.   Thu Oct 24 2002 07:42 AM
. * * late october HanKFranK   Thu Oct 24 2002 01:59 PM
. * * Re: late october Kevin   Thu Oct 24 2002 05:24 PM
. * * Re: late october Brad in Miami   Thu Oct 24 2002 08:15 PM
. * * KENNA A CATEGORY 5!!! Kevin   Thu Oct 24 2002 05:32 PM
. * * And yet another post. Kevin   Thu Oct 24 2002 06:31 PM
. * * Re: And yet another post. troy2   Thu Oct 24 2002 09:08 PM
. * * Re: And yet another post. troy2   Thu Oct 24 2002 09:20 PM
. * * Tropical Development 57497479   Fri Oct 25 2002 05:46 AM
. * * I'm back! Kevin   Fri Oct 18 2002 04:34 PM
. * * TD 14 - Maybe Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Oct 15 2002 07:45 PM
. * * Re: TD 14 - Maybe LoisCane   Wed Oct 16 2002 01:11 AM
. * * Look at the 6Z GFDL???? Steve H.   Wed Oct 16 2002 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Look at the 6Z GFDL???? Steve H.   Wed Oct 16 2002 10:10 AM
. * * Re: Look at the 6Z GFDL???? HanKFranK   Wed Oct 16 2002 11:10 AM
. * * 96L Steve H.   Thu Oct 17 2002 09:16 PM
. * * To Steve H garyb   Fri Oct 18 2002 07:11 AM
. * * Guidance Steve H.   Fri Oct 18 2002 07:41 AM
. * * Re: Fourteen's Future Bill   Tue Oct 15 2002 12:00 PM
. * * that would be.. HanKFranK   Tue Oct 15 2002 04:36 PM
. * * Uh oh Brett   Tue Oct 15 2002 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Uh oh tom5r   Tue Oct 15 2002 11:30 AM

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