Hurricane Warnings for Parts of the Florida Peninsula

most of the guidance from 00z is very clustered. pretty much all of the dynamic and global guidance is pushing the hurricane across a corridor in florida bound by port charlotte and everglades city on the west coast, west palm and sebastian on the east coast. still personally camping on fort myers. the cat 2/3 official intensity i'm going to roll with, since like the forecast track it agrees with ideas i've had for a while (excepting that i didn't think the hurricane would make it ashore in the yucatan a few days back, and thought tomorrow would be the impact day up until thursday). there's a double eyewall structure and the hurricane will have a very hard time shaking it. got a hunch that it will morph into an asymmetrical system that is slightly stronger tomorrow as shear and momentum increase.
after florida the hurricane will likely continue to be a threat. the official track doesn't favor it, but almost all of the global guidance has the hurricane clipping cape cod and hitting maine or nova scotia late tuesday night or early wednesday morning... as a hybrid baroclinic system. notable that these models show a deepening system. mind that the hurricane may maintain a warm core to quite a latitude as it accelerates ahead of the trough. i wouldn't be surprised if the entire area around the gulf of maine experiences hurricane conditions.
it is worth noting that tropical storm alpha is progged to drive north and entrain into wilma's right quad in the newer official forecast. with modeling showing deeper penetration of the shortwaves over land and the hurricane undergoing a phasing event, i'm thinking that this solution of alpha rocketing northward is looking more feasible. the tropical storm is going to cross the thick part of the island, so there is a chance it won't survive the crossing or won't recover any from it.
again worth noting that global models show one or two areas of interest next week. the first is the wake of wilma, in the sw caribbean. the hurricane will leave a large weakness in the trades around there, with perhaps a weak sw flow off the pacific. it's at the periphery of the upper ridge dominating the caribbean, with modest surface convergence.. a low pressure area is shown on several models, though none do much with it. the feature is slowly lost or gives way to the other from the east.
the second area is a gfs favorite. gfs shows a low materializing off a wave east of the islands, driving into the caribbean under the subtropical ridge, and developing into a weak tropical system. sketchy near the beginning of november as gfs shows a some energy pulsing into a coastal storm from the nw caribbean... were a tropical system there it would probably lift across cuba. thereafter gfs keeps low pressure in the western caribbean through the end of its forecast cycle. it all isn't quite adding up yet, but there does appear to be the potential for more action in the caribbean. both of these systems have shown up in multiple model runs, just not completely convincing yet.
HF 0608z23october

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