This update has nothing to do with Hank's post above. Just my bad timing.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 137 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 VALID OCT 23/0000 UTC THRU OCT 26/1200 UTC
MODEL TRENDS... ..HURCN WILMA THE 00Z NAM IS SLOWER AND FARTHER S WITH THE TRACK OF WILMA THRU DAY 2 THAN THE 12Z NAM. ON DAY 3...THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER LIFTING WILMA NWD ALONG THE E COAST...BUT TRENDS FASTER TURNING THE SYS EXTRATROP AND ABSORBING IT INTO THE FNTL SYS ASSOC WITH THE UPR LOW OVER THE GRTLKS/OH VLY. THE 00Z GFS IS MORE SLY WITH THE TRACK OF WILMA ON DAYS 1-2 THAN THE 12Z GFS. ALSO ON DAY 2...THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER E WITH THE SYS...BUT BY DAY 3...THE GFS WRAPS MORE OF THE H5 ENERGY ASSOC WITH WILMA AROUND THE NERN SIDE OF THE H5 LOW OVER THE OH VLY/GRTLKS AND SHIFTS THE SFC LOW FARTHER W THAN THE 12Z RUN.
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
...OVERALL... THERE SEEMS TO BE SUPPORT FOR THE GFS SCENARIO IN THE NRN STREAM...BUT IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY IN THE SRN STREAM WHERE THE NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR WILMA IS SLOWER AND MORE ELY THAN THE UKMET AND GFS ON DAY 3. IF WILMA MOVES FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE H5 ENERGY ASSOC WITH THE SYS COULD GET WRAPPED AROUND THE NERN SIDE OF THE H5 LOW OVER THE ERN GRTLKS LIKE THE UKMET AND GFS...BUT SEEING THAT THERE IS LITTLE 18Z NCEP ENS SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO... THAT THE OTHER OP GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE MORE WLY UKMET/GFS ..AND MOST IMPORTANTLY THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A MORE ELY PSN...CAN NOT RECOMMEND THE GFS ON DAY 3 IN THE NRN STREAM. THE 18Z NCEP ENS MEAN SEEMS LIKE THE BEST BET FOR NOW AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE NHC PSN FOR WILMA AND IT ADOPTS THE H5 LOW PSN OF THE GFS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VLY BY THE END OF THE PD.
..HURCN WILMA THE NOGAPS AND NAM CARRY WILMA ON A MUCH SLOWER/MORE SLY TRACK THAN THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST THRU FL. AS THE SYS MOVES UP THE E COAST...THE 72 HR OFFICIAL NHC PSN FOR THE EXTRATROP LOW ASSOC WITH WILMA IS CLOSEST TO THE CAN GLOB... NOGAPS...AND 18Z NCEP ENS MEAN PSNS...HOLDING THE LOW OFF CAPE COD WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET SOLNS. OVERALL...THE CAN GLOB IS CLOSEST TO THE NHC TRACK. SEE THE LATEST NHC BULLETIN FOR DETAILS ON WILMA.
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