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Tornadoes for sure, check out the differences in the dew points from north to south:
48 Tallahassee
57 Gainesville
75 Orlando
78 West Palm Beach
81 Miami Beach
The frontogenic signature is actually only average (not that you were asking) but you most certainly do have a disproportionately intense llv thermodynamic gradient evolving in lieu of the fropa (mid/upper Fl Penn)
This is intriguing....The mid-levels seem to want to support a frontal position somewhat N of Gainesville, but that's not unusual because all cfronts will tend to wedge somewhat underneath their own mid-lvl support. To mention, some of those cooler dp poolings are probably because SE Georgia has some topography lending to "cool air damming" - a phenomenon more associated with the upper East Coast but taking place in SE Georgia and the Carolina coastal plains nonetheless. This air was given special impetus in moving S because of departing gale center situated over ACK, MA this morning; now racing into the Gulf of Maine. May seem like a stretch to say that but the former process was actually set into motion earlier yesterday evening (got keep the temporal relationship in mind here..)
...Anyway, thus there is a frontal slope in the area with a potent circulation (.a.ka Wilma) riding up the boundary from SW to NE. This has super-intense short duration rainfall event for the NW side written all over it... Typically, the NW quadrant of a hurricane is the rain side anyway, and the SE wind, for systems moving NE... (W/E for systems moving N..etc). It looks as though you have some compounding factors that would suggest an extreme flood potential for areas along and actually just N of the llv frontal position, as Wilma is moving (most likely) right across the Lake Ok. area and exiting S of Cape C. Those areas will have elevated convective elements of tropical origin, nested amid a phenomenal isentropic lift scenario... We could be talking blinding rain - even more intense than typical for these scenarios. Not sure what the soil moisture is like in those areas NW of Wilma's track but it may not matter if much fall rates. The saving grace is that she's accelerating in keeping with strong U/A impulse tumbling down into the Ohio Valley... This closed area has furthering complications up the East Coast.
...This scenario has been covered by HankFrank several times of the last few days but I can't help my self... Sufficed to say, Eastern New England is not out of the woods... In fact, closer inspection of all the models, which clearly have converged on a powerful hybrid/Nor'easter for our area up here (potentially damaging one), shows that she's technically still warm core while she's passing near 70W/42N (Cape Cod or just off-shore there). Meanwhile, there is U/A warm frontogenisis signature materializing S of our area, classic transitioning signal. The thing is, as is typical for systems of this nature, she will be moving along so quickly by the time she's nearing she's likely to exceed her transition rates so it does seem she'll have vestiges of a warm inner core... This is actually a blessing for those who would rather not experience a dramatic short-lead warning wind event, because that means that her pgf has not been expanded; her baroclinic acquistion hasn't completed. I don't see how she can complete the transition fast enough to keep up with her very quick translational speed given model solutions such as the GFDL. It shows a extratropical cyclogensis vis-a vis the U/A low, with a weakening Wilma sling-shotting around the eastern flanks at ludicrous speed. In other words, she's likely a still a distinct entity fighting off the morphology, but finally conceding well NE.
...However, the other extreme, the 00z NOGAPs, it offers an intriguing solution, which I cannot ignore. Typically, the NOGAPs has a longitudinal bias, particularly N of 30 degree that is true... It is thus intriguing to me that it indeed has the less depthy H500mb pattern Monday/Tuesday concerning the Ohio Valley trough...yet, it is more successful in apparently morphing Wilma with Mid-Atlantic in situ cyclogenisis... Almost wonder if that's some kind of exotic confidence. Should the more amplified H500 GFS type solutions pan out, it is possible that Wilma would start racing N and then actually take on more NOGAPian sfc soltuions; dramatic hook, morph in (alla NOGAPS solution) into a real stemwinder...
Observing the wv imagery provided at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html ....shows a very powerful secondary potential vorticity field, when extrapolating the intense U/A impulse that is rotating through the SW Lakes...toward the SE.. It is not entirely certain how effectual this arrangement will be at 54 hours in actually inducing strong Mid Atlantic cyclogenisis... but this could be scary. Since the lions share the baroclinicity was not displaced seaward by the current attenuating gale center, there is a very large cyclogenisis potential lingering up and down the entire area of New England to N Florida really... The trigger vorticity advection does not have to be that impressive with such dynamic, and the U/A impulse will have decent mid lvl jet nosing into the lower Del Marva, as steering feild ENE of the 70W lon line will probably situate more S to N than currently depicted (going on the assumption that the models are typically underdone with heights in the western Atlantic). Yet, here we have a strong gyre with very cold mid-llv heights tumbling SE, with Wilma situated alarmingly close by in the Gulf...?
Bottom line...these elements are quite forboding. In a vague way, kind of reminds me of the 1991 Gracy - Perfect Storm scenario, although there isn't enough block NE (I don't think?) to cause a lingering hyper system.
It's gonna be a fun ride... I'm almost thinking about hitting the Cape with a some kind of video camera and being really irresponsible and stupid... Anyway, the 12z guidance is crankin' out as I type... Be interesting to see if the deeper solution along the New England coast theory pans out... Right now, as is, and based on 00z and 06z guidance average across all clusters, it looks like a moderate impact Nor'easter with room for deep considerations... Just interested in if the 12z guidance avails of those potentials and bores a hole in the atmosphere near my lat/lon...
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Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m.
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