Looks like some quick intensification starting tonight, if she continues to slowly organize. Again timing of how far along she is in the reorg process when she hits the loop current will determine this to a large extent, even with the other things that factor into intensity.
And if she does manage to become a Cat 3 for a short time, she won't have weakened very much by the time she reaches the outer Keys. That is why the Keys are at such risk, compared to the mainland.
I was going to put...high-end Cat 3 or even a Cat 4. But I think if that occured it will only be for a very tiny core, and for that area to hit as low as the Keys would mean a course change a little further south, so that is starting to get into the area of lower probability. Still because forecast predictions are limited, and it will be too late to evac once the hurricane is closer, it is important to evac the Keys now.
I understand quite a few are going to stay. Not sure what their motivations mght be, but I'd hate to put myself in a position where my options for staying alive might suddenly become very limited.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 237143
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center