Looks like some quick intensification starting tonight, if she continues to slowly organize. Again timing of how far along she is in the reorg process when she hits the loop current will determine this to a large extent, even with the other things that factor into intensity.
And if she does manage to become a Cat 3 for a short time, she won't have weakened very much by the time she reaches the outer Keys. That is why the Keys are at such risk, compared to the mainland.
I was going to put...high-end Cat 3 or even a Cat 4. But I think if that occured it will only be for a very tiny core, and for that area to hit as low as the Keys would mean a course change a little further south, so that is starting to get into the area of lower probability. Still because forecast predictions are limited, and it will be too late to evac once the hurricane is closer, it is important to evac the Keys now.
I understand quite a few are going to stay. Not sure what their motivations mght be, but I'd hate to put myself in a position where my options for staying alive might suddenly become very limited.
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