Here is the latest from SPC on the tornado threat for today and tonight... basically it appears that the greatest threat will be in south Florida, with the alignment of the front in central FL not ideal for tornado formation, since storms will quickly move from the warm side to the cool side of the front, rather than along the front. As Wilma approaches, though, the tornado threat closer to the front will also increase:
...S FL... LEAD CONFLUENCE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA SHOULD REACH THE WRN KEYS BY MID AFTERNOON...AND SW FL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. COINCIDENT INCREASE IN LOW-LVL SHEAR STRENGTH/ HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 70S/...WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THIS THREAT SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA ACCELERATES NEWD.
...CNTRL FL... DESPITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AFOREMENTIONED FRONT OVER CNTRL FL MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AS HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. BOTH LOW AND DEEP SHEAR ALONG BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN MODEST UNTIL THIS EVENING ...WHEN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS REGION. IN ADDITION... BOUNDARY ORIENTATION IS SUCH THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM LIKELY WILL MOVE FROM WARM TO COOL SIDE FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THUS...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY NON-SEVERE TODAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PWS /2+ INCHES/ MAY YIELD A WET MICROBURST OR TWO. BUT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ALONG BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR STRENGTHENS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WILMA. INTERACTIONS CONDUCIVE TO LOW LVL STORM ROTATION MAY ALSO OCCUR BETWEEN THE BOUNDARY AND WILMA/S OUTER CONFLUENCE BANDS.
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