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92L now up to a 60% chance for development. Recon out there but just under the threshhold for classification, may become a TD later today.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 296 (Idalia) , Major: 296 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 296 (Idalia) Major: 296 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

wxman007
Meteorologist

Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL

Re: Have you guys seen the GOM?
Tue Jun 04 2002 04:18 PM

Good discussion of the situation from NWS Mobile...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
300 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

WEATHER PATTERN PROVES DIFFICULT IN THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...FORECAST
AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY TWO FEATURES. 1) A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND 2) A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF.

<snip>

THE SECOND
FEATURE OF INTEREST IS WHAT WILL BE THE OUTCOME OF WHAT APPEARS ON
SATELLITE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS TO BE AN INVERTED TROF OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF...NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SLIDE THIS FEATURE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF WITH THE ETA SHOWING
LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE AVN IS MORE ROBUST...CLOSING OFF A
SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ON
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE AVN MODEL
SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE A PRODUCT OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE INTO THE SYSTEM
OVER WARM GULF WATER TEMPERATURES (26-28C>80-83F). IF THE AVN
SOLUTION IS BELIEVED...THEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM THAN WHAT WOULD BE THE EXPECTED IN THE WEAKER SOLUTION AS
ADVERTISED IN THE ETA. ALL IS DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS IN THE
GULF. STAY TUNED. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A GOOD
CHANCE TO LIKELY PRECIPITATION COVERAGES WILL BE INTRODUCED MUCH OF
THE TIME. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FUNCTION OF CLOUDS AND
EXPECTED RAIN COVERAGES.

--------------------
Jason Kelley

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Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	CFHC	Tue Jun 04 2002 04:18 PM
Hurricanes of the future?	Greyman	Wed Jun 05 2002 12:13 PM
Will a depression form today or tonight?	Steve	Wed Jun 05 2002 01:38 PM
Re: Will a depression form today or tonight?	Frank P	Wed Jun 05 2002 02:21 PM
Re: Will a depression form today or tonight?	Anonymous (HF)	Wed Jun 05 2002 02:58 PM
Re: Will a depression form today or tonight?	andy1tom	Wed Jun 05 2002 02:38 PM
Re: Will a depression form today or tonight?	Steve	Wed Jun 05 2002 03:23 PM
TOO EARLY FOR AFRICAN WAVES	Greyman	Wed Jun 05 2002 09:20 AM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	CaneMan	Wed Jun 05 2002 09:00 AM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	SirCane	Tue Jun 04 2002 09:18 PM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	Frank P	Tue Jun 04 2002 09:42 PM
J.B's FORECAST	Greyman	Tue Jun 04 2002 05:54 PM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	Greyman	Sun Jun 02 2002 05:28 PM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	Rad	Sun Jun 02 2002 05:37 PM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	Anonymous	Sun Jun 02 2002 07:01 PM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	Frank P	Sun Jun 02 2002 07:40 PM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	Steve	Sun Jun 02 2002 08:22 PM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	Frank P	Sun Jun 02 2002 09:32 PM
GO WATCH BASTARDI'S METEOROLOGICAL DISCO for today	Steve	Mon Jun 03 2002 11:23 AM
Re: GO WATCH BASTARDI'S METEOROLOGICAL DISCO for today	Ed Dunham	Mon Jun 03 2002 01:45 PM
Re: GO WATCH BASTARDI'S METEOROLOGICAL DISCO for today	Steve	Mon Jun 03 2002 11:24 AM
Re: GO WATCH BASTARDI'S METEOROLOGICAL DISCO for today	Greyman	Mon Jun 03 2002 12:07 PM
Re: GO WATCH BASTARDI'S METEOROLOGICAL DISCO for today	Kevin	Mon Jun 03 2002 12:35 PM
Re: GO WATCH BASTARDI'S METEOROLOGICAL DISCO for today	Greyman	Mon Jun 03 2002 12:22 PM
Re: GO WATCH BASTARDI'S METEOROLOGICAL DISCO for today	Steve	Mon Jun 03 2002 12:35 PM
Re: GO WATCH BASTARDI'S METEOROLOGICAL DISCO for today	Greyman	Mon Jun 03 2002 01:51 PM
Re: GO WATCH BASTARDI'S METEOROLOGICAL DISCO for today	Frank P	Mon Jun 03 2002 01:01 PM
Re: GO WATCH BASTARDI'S METEOROLOGICAL DISCO for today	Steve	Mon Jun 03 2002 01:11 PM
Re: GO WATCH BASTARDI'S METEOROLOGICAL DISCO for today	Frank P	Mon Jun 03 2002 01:18 PM
Re: GOM	Carl	Tue Jun 04 2002 05:18 PM
Re: GO WATCH BASTARDI'S METEOROLOGICAL DISCO for today	Frank P	Mon Jun 03 2002 01:50 PM
Re: GO WATCH BASTARDI'S METEOROLOGICAL DISCO for today	Steve	Mon Jun 03 2002 01:14 PM
Re: GO WATCH BASTARDI'S METEOROLOGICAL DISCO for today	Frank P	Mon Jun 03 2002 02:09 PM
Thanks...	Steve	Mon Jun 03 2002 03:23 PM
Re: Thanks...	Greyman	Mon Jun 03 2002 04:21 PM
Hey Ed...	Steve	Mon Jun 03 2002 03:41 PM
Re: Hey Ed...	Ed Dunham	Mon Jun 03 2002 05:41 PM
For the Joe B fans...	Anonymous	Mon Jun 03 2002 07:29 PM
Re: For the Joe B fans...	Rad	Mon Jun 03 2002 07:37 PM
Re: For the Joe B fans...	Barry B	Mon Jun 03 2002 10:01 PM
The METS are Watching....	Colleen A.	Tue Jun 04 2002 11:01 AM
Re: The METS are Watching....	wxman007	Tue Jun 04 2002 03:27 PM
Re: The METS are Watching....	GaryC	Tue Jun 04 2002 11:24 AM
Re: The METS are Watching....	Colleen A.	Tue Jun 04 2002 12:04 PM
Re: The METS are Watching....	Frank P	Tue Jun 04 2002 12:39 PM
Re: The METS are Watching....	Anonymous-(DOUG)	Tue Jun 04 2002 01:20 PM
Re: For the Joe B fans...	Frank P	Tue Jun 04 2002 06:43 AM
Re: For the Joe B fans...	Frank P	Tue Jun 04 2002 06:50 AM
Re: For the Joe B fans...	Frank P	Tue Jun 04 2002 09:24 AM
Re: GO WATCH BASTARDI'S METEOROLOGICAL DISCO for today	jth	Mon Jun 03 2002 03:11 PM
Re: Hurricane Numbers	Anonymous	Mon Jun 03 2002 12:34 PM
Re: GO WATCH BASTARDI'S METEOROLOGICAL DISCO for today	Steve	Mon Jun 03 2002 11:28 AM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	Bruce	Sun Jun 02 2002 12:53 AM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	Ed Dunham	Sun Jun 02 2002 07:10 AM
Have you guys seen the GOM?	SirCane	Tue Jun 04 2002 03:49 PM
Re: Have you guys seen the GOM?	wxman007	Tue Jun 04 2002 04:18 PM
Re: Have you guys seen the GOM?	Kevin	Tue Jun 04 2002 04:46 PM
Re: Have you guys seen the GOM?	Rad	Tue Jun 04 2002 06:58 PM
another wannabe	Anonymous (HF)	Tue Jun 04 2002 07:59 PM
TO >>HF	Rad	Tue Jun 04 2002 10:02 PM
Re: TO >>HF	ShawnS	Tue Jun 04 2002 10:09 PM
Re: TO >>HF	Rad	Tue Jun 04 2002 10:57 PM
Shear...	Steve	Tue Jun 04 2002 11:57 PM
I have a Question....	Colleen A.	Wed Jun 05 2002 10:46 AM
Re: I have a Question....	garyb	Wed Jun 05 2002 11:21 AM
Re: I have a Question....	Colleen A.	Wed Jun 05 2002 12:12 PM
Re: Have you guys seen the GOM?	Anonymous	Tue Jun 04 2002 05:13 PM
Re: Have you guys seen the GOM?	garyb	Wed Jun 05 2002 09:01 AM
one other..	Anonymous (HF)	Tue Jun 04 2002 08:01 PM
Yucatan	Frank P	Tue Jun 04 2002 09:16 PM
Re: Have you guys seen the GOM?	ShawnS	Tue Jun 04 2002 06:35 PM
Re: Have you guys seen the GOM?	Rich B	Tue Jun 04 2002 05:15 PM
Key areas to watch over the next 2 weeks...	Anonymous	Sun Jun 02 2002 11:22 AM
prediction from central fl	Steve 777	Sun Jun 02 2002 07:58 PM
Re: prediction from central fl	Rad	Sun Jun 02 2002 08:02 PM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	Steve 777	Sat Jun 01 2002 10:20 PM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	Anonymous	Sat Jun 01 2002 11:11 PM
Prediction...	Steve	Sun Jun 02 2002 12:19 AM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	Greyman	Sat Jun 01 2002 04:07 PM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	Anonymous	Sat Jun 01 2002 11:29 AM
oops!	Kevin	Sat Jun 01 2002 11:35 AM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	Anonymous	Sat Jun 01 2002 11:27 AM
Dyn-O-Mat - is Back! DELETED	Anonymous	Sat Jun 01 2002 10:43 AM
Re: Dyn-O-Mat - is Back!	John C	Sat Jun 01 2002 12:44 PM
Re: Dyn-O-Mat - is Back!	Rich B	Sat Jun 01 2002 01:22 PM
Re: Dyn-O-Mat - is Back!	Colleen A.	Sat Jun 01 2002 02:30 PM
Re: Dyn-O-Mat - is Back!	John C	Sat Jun 01 2002 02:42 PM
Re: Dyn-O-Mat - is Back!	Rich B	Sat Jun 01 2002 05:25 PM
Mother Nature	Rad	Sat Jun 01 2002 06:35 PM
Dynomat/Dynagel Poll	Colleen A.	Sun Jun 02 2002 12:43 PM
Re: Dynomat/Dynagel Poll	Rad	Sun Jun 02 2002 01:47 PM
Re: Dynomat/Dynagel Poll	Colleen A.	Sun Jun 02 2002 02:22 PM
Re: Mother Nature	Frank P	Sat Jun 01 2002 07:02 PM
Re: Mother Nature	Rad	Sat Jun 01 2002 07:26 PM
Re: Mother Nature	ShawnS	Sat Jun 01 2002 10:16 PM
Shawn	Colleen A.	Sun Jun 02 2002 12:46 PM
Re: Mother Nature	Colleen A.	Sun Jun 02 2002 12:45 PM
Dyn-O-Mat - It's Back!	Anonymous	Sat Jun 01 2002 10:42 AM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	Rich B	Sat Jun 01 2002 09:28 AM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	Rad	Sat Jun 01 2002 09:01 AM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	garyb	Sat Jun 01 2002 08:45 AM
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today	HURRICANELONNY	Sat Jun 01 2002 08:35 AM

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