Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Outlook for the 2003 Season
Wed Apr 16 2003 06:28 PM
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Welcome to the 2003 CFHC Storm Forum! The potential certainly exists for an interesting season and I look forward to all of your inputs. Professional and Novice (and everyone in-between) are welcomed here. We had some great dialogue last year and I'm sure that the new season will bring more of the same. Use this forum to:
Share your thoughts, observations and forecasts for a particular storm or developing system.
Comment on your expectations for the 2003 season.
Share a useful data link with others.
At the start of the year, Mike shared some of my thoughts on the upcoming season (see 2003 News Talkback) and those thoughts have not changed too much. El Nino is still on the decline and ENSO conditions should become Neutral by the start of the season. Other indicators still point to a slightly above average season. In January my thoughts were as follows:
Total Named Storms: 11
Hurricanes: 6
Major Hurricanes: 2
Monthly distribution: June/July: 1, August: 3, September: 5 or 6, October: 2 or 1
Above normal landfall threat for the entire Gulf of Mexico, the western Caribbean islands, and south Florida and the Keys.
My current thoughts haven't changed all that much:
Total Named Storms: 11
Hurricanes: 7
Major Hurricanes: 3
My thinking on good analog years has sure changed though. With a closer check on global SST patterns and on high level wind pattern expectations, I now feel that 1985 is the best analog year (and perhaps the only good analog year). This year may be a bit unique, so finding a good analog was not that easy. 1964 and 1995 were two years with some pattern matches, but they were not strong analog years.
I still anticipate a lot of Gulf activity this year, with the bulk of the landfall threat likely to be east of Louisiana. This doesn't mean that LA and TX are out of the woods - far from it - just means that my expectation is for more activity affecting the eastern Gulf area. I'd anticipate an above average threat from Mobile to Key West - and also a possible threat to southern New England.
Thanks to all of you who contributed in the past and hope to see you, and others, back for another year of great Storm Forum discussion.
Cheers,
ED
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