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90L's remnants are now inland, nothing developed. A generally quiet Atlantic is likely until later in August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 278 (Zeta) , Major: 340 (Laura) Florida - Any: 1027 (Michael) Major: 1027 (Michael)
 


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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: latest TWO
      Tue Oct 25 2005 02:24 PM

the twd has something to say about the sw carib feature:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
11N78W WITH MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1011 MB. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH BANDING FEATURES BECOMING MORE PROMINENT. COMPUTER MODELS
UNANIMOUSLY SUGGEST THE AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR IN THE
FORECAST. A SLOW DRIFT TO THE W OR WNW IS LIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-83W.

i was thinking this would take a couple or few days to consolidate into a tropical system. this time of year in that part of the basin they tend to be broad, move slowly, and come together slowly. it may come up a little faster than expected. this thing is going to move slowly... look i'm getting from the globals and ensembles is that it may start coming up early next week.. and perhaps threaten cuba and maybe the southern end of florida in the first few days of november.
there's another low-amplitude wave approaching from the east... in about two days it should be under quite favorable upper-air conditons. take a look at the 12z ukmet, because i think that's more or less what it's going to do. not too dissimilar from alpha, really.
that vibe floating around the media about wilma being the end of the season is looking quite uncertain today.

if you're wondering about the thing further east, it gets a lesser mention as well:
W-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THIS WAVE SHOWS STRONG ROTATION IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS BUT HAS
CONSIDERABLY WLY SHEAR INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER UPPER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE ENTERS THE LESSER ANTILLES
TOMORROW. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EFFECTS MOST CONCENTRATED IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
49W-55W WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE FROM 9N-16N
BETWEEN 45W-57W.

HF 1824z25october

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 25 2005 02:25 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida MikeCAdministrator Tue Oct 25 2005 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida KC   Tue Oct 25 2005 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida trinibaje   Tue Oct 25 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida tpratch   Tue Oct 25 2005 12:01 PM
. * * latest TWO Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 25 2005 12:14 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 12:50 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO ChessieStorm   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:22 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:10 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Cindi   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:14 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Wxwatcher2   Tue Oct 25 2005 10:02 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO collegemom   Tue Oct 25 2005 10:54 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO GoBigSurf   Tue Oct 25 2005 11:12 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO HanKFranK   Wed Oct 26 2005 01:24 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:07 AM
. * * 90/91 HanKFranK   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:28 AM
. * * Re: 90/91 Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:10 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Random Chaos   Wed Oct 26 2005 07:34 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:27 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 12:35 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:30 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:14 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO damejune2   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:54 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 25 2005 05:28 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO scottsvb   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Random Chaos   Tue Oct 25 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Convergence   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:50 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:16 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:30 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO satellite steve   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:46 PM
. * * Rating storms Bloodstar   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Rating storms Margie   Tue Oct 25 2005 05:01 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:25 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:45 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO CoalCracker   Tue Oct 25 2005 08:31 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO NWBroward   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:28 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:35 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Tue Oct 25 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO FreakedInFlorida   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:05 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:12 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO CoalCracker   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:26 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO satellite steve   Tue Oct 25 2005 10:02 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO satellite steve   Tue Oct 25 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO KC   Tue Oct 25 2005 05:46 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Katie   Tue Oct 25 2005 06:12 PM
. * * Picking up pieces Bloodstar   Tue Oct 25 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Picking up pieces Random Chaos   Tue Oct 25 2005 08:42 PM
. * * New Systems? NONAME   Tue Oct 25 2005 08:31 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 05:23 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Clark   Wed Oct 26 2005 12:44 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:40 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 26 2005 12:10 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 01:35 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 12:37 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO JMII   Wed Oct 26 2005 01:34 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO wiley   Wed Oct 26 2005 12:52 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:23 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:41 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:58 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:05 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO harmlc.ath.cx   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:12 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO HanKFranK   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:24 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:06 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO tpratch   Tue Oct 25 2005 01:30 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:35 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Ed in Va   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:49 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:26 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Katie   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:02 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Ed in Va   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:05 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Kimster   Tue Oct 25 2005 01:46 PM

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