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Odette has become even more Extra Tropical and moving out to sea. Elsewhere, 95L is now Tropical Storm Peter and 97L SEVENTEEN
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 6 (Nicholas) , Major: 21 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1075 (Michael) Major: 1075 (Michael)
19.1N 59.5W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Wnw at 14 mph
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15.9N 32.6W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Nw at 15 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: latest TWO
      Wed Oct 26 2005 12:44 AM

I can assure you that there is no nepotism involved with the current state meteorologist of Florida, Ben Nelson. For one, he's not related to anyone in the administration. He is young and while he has been through a few storms before, he's still learning on the job. The position has seen some turnover over the past few years, so he hasn't been in the position all that long. He has done a fine job in his time in the post and has worked his way up the ladder quickly through his work. One little hiccup isn't going to make a big difference -- and truthfully, a lot of people have slipped over the past few days and gotten the storm names mixed up.

Remember -- his job isn't so much to predict where storms are going as it is to repackage the information out there from the NHC & other official sources and make it easy for the public to understand. His work is one of the reasons why Florida is prepared for these storms and comes across that way to the rest of the nation as well.

Area in the SW Caribbean needs to be watched...it's not going to move much over the next few days, so whether or not it remains over water is going to be critical to its development. Ultimate path could take it inland over Central America to its demise or, in the long-term, across Cuba and through the Bahamas ahead of another trough of low pressure. Tangential threat to Florida could be there again, but I don't think it'll be the sort seen from Wilma.

Word of caution with using SSTs in the Gulf -- all of those SSTs are taken in the shallow near-coastal waters, particularly those north of Tampa in the shallow Apalachee Bay region. Waters out in the Gulf 10mi or more (except in Apalachee Bay) are still in the 80s and are much slower to respond to changes in the overall environment. While other conditions currently preclude any development in the Gulf, notably stable low levels and strong vertical wind shear, SSTs really aren't one of them. Sure, anything heading into the NE Gulf would likely weaken to landfall, but not dramatically so unless it was a major hurricane to begin with.

Another note of caution -- Wilma's probably more the exception than the rule when it comes to major hurricanes at such a high latitude. It set the record for the latest major hurricane to make a US landfall. ..it's highly, highly unlikely to see another major storm hit the US this season. All of the major storms that have affected northern latitudes have been in August and September, maybe early October -- but not late October. The environmental conditions heading into New England/the NE US or the Canadian Maritimes cannot support a cat 2/3 storm at this point in time. I should note that any storm of any intensity heading that way is going to be partially baroclinically driven and undergoing extratropical transition, creating a whole new set of concerns. Point being, it's not likely at any point during the season to see something that far north as anything more than a weak hurricane, yet alone in late October.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida MikeCAdministrator Wed Oct 26 2005 12:44 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida KC   Tue Oct 25 2005 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida trinibaje   Tue Oct 25 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida tpratch   Tue Oct 25 2005 12:01 PM
. * * latest TWO Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 25 2005 12:14 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 12:50 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO ChessieStorm   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:22 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:10 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Cindi   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:14 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Wxwatcher2   Tue Oct 25 2005 10:02 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO collegemom   Tue Oct 25 2005 10:54 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO GoBigSurf   Tue Oct 25 2005 11:12 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO HanKFranK   Wed Oct 26 2005 01:24 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:07 AM
. * * 90/91 HanKFranK   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:28 AM
. * * Re: 90/91 Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:10 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Random Chaos   Wed Oct 26 2005 07:34 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:27 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 12:35 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:30 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:14 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO damejune2   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:54 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 25 2005 05:28 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO scottsvb   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Random Chaos   Tue Oct 25 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Convergence   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:50 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:16 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:30 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO satellite steve   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:46 PM
. * * Rating storms Bloodstar   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Rating storms Margie   Tue Oct 25 2005 05:01 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:25 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:45 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO CoalCracker   Tue Oct 25 2005 08:31 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO NWBroward   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:28 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:35 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Tue Oct 25 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO FreakedInFlorida   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:05 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:12 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO CoalCracker   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:26 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO satellite steve   Tue Oct 25 2005 10:02 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO satellite steve   Tue Oct 25 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO KC   Tue Oct 25 2005 05:46 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Katie   Tue Oct 25 2005 06:12 PM
. * * Picking up pieces Bloodstar   Tue Oct 25 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Picking up pieces Random Chaos   Tue Oct 25 2005 08:42 PM
. * * New Systems? NONAME   Tue Oct 25 2005 08:31 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 05:23 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Clark   Wed Oct 26 2005 12:44 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:40 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 26 2005 12:10 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 01:35 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 12:37 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO JMII   Wed Oct 26 2005 01:34 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO wiley   Wed Oct 26 2005 12:52 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:23 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:41 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:58 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:05 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO harmlc.ath.cx   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:12 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO HanKFranK   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:24 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:06 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO tpratch   Tue Oct 25 2005 01:30 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:35 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Ed in Va   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:49 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:26 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Katie   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:02 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Ed in Va   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:05 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Kimster   Tue Oct 25 2005 01:46 PM

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