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Bay of Campeche area now up to 40% chacce for development over the next 5 days. Heavy rain in the area likely.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 226 (Zeta) , Major: 289 (Laura) Florida - Any: 975 (Michael) Major: 975 (Michael)
 


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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
90/91
      Wed Oct 26 2005 10:28 AM

there is early track guidance now being run on the improving wave east of the islands, so now we have the two invests. philosophy on either is changed little.
90 has been holding down a t1.0 rating for two cycles. next cycle might be better as the satellite signature has improved... but this feature is at very low latitude. it's probably less than 100mi north of the panamanian coast. coriolis force is quite weak down there, so tropical cyclones usually have a hard go of it to develop. most of the track guidance nudges the system nw... by the weekend about half has it over nicaragua (after a modest development offshore), and the rest has it sitting up on the nw coast of nicaragua looking north. based on model agreement i'd go with this thing making tropical storm. not sure how inland if at all it will go, but best bet is that it runs over central america. slow mover, probably going to be some bad flooding down there. right now it has a concentrated area of convection, so it could be upgraded to a depression if banding features become apparent.
91 has a too weak rating, and no semblance of a surface low... but convection and the fanned appearance of clouds in a supportive outflow pattern have increased, and there's the sluggish south/fast north trade wind profile that often precedes development. idea that it will evolve along the lines of alpha is unchanged.
in about 3-4 days these two features will be in close proximity. the ukmet solution has the most pronounced version of this, though other models are suggestive.. but it looks like 90L will be clinging to the coast of nicaragua, while 91L will get handed off to a shortwave-spawned system off the east coast. how involved it becomes is questionable, but the globals suggest that it will turn up in the vicinity of jamaica/eastern cuba and recurve sharply. 90L is then shown in later model runs lingering near shore or onshore nicaragua... perhaps coming north sunday or monday if it survives.
feels bizarre to be saying it, but we could easily have beta and gamma before the week is out.
HF 1429z26october

worth adding that if both systems have developed by say, friday, there is a good chance they will binarily interact.. i.e. sort of tug at one another. this would probably keep 90L offshore, but is unlikely to prevent 91L from recurving. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Oct 26 2005 10:31 AM)

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