TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST NORTH OF WESTERN PANAMA HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Think Beta is in the making.... just by looking at sat.... should be near TD status now!
Tropical - GOES-12 4 km Visible
Costa Rica GOES-East 2 km VIS
yeah - but i'm a little less impressed with the "apparent" wnw motion that is equally as evident on sat. not sure if this is really connected with any larger scale steering controls; i see a possibility....
..it's a shallow system and therefore is still very susceptible to the background environmental field, which would tend to be ese to wnw in that area. should "beta" evolve quicker, however, it may slow down when it deepens for better ability to fend off some of these background environmental motions. ...there may also actually be perturbation in the synoptics surrounding the area that is causing this motion and it is therefore uncertain as to how long it would persists if that is the case. thing is, the 00z GFDL takes it well over a 100kts in 72 hours, and then drives it inland to do what is likely a historic flood job. even if so, i think the faster it develops the better off it will be in this case - if you are an intensity enthusiast that is - for there is some suggestion in the global models that a ssw to nne steering field could be establishing in that area, which would mitigate a large longitudinal gain.
..and btw: i dissagree that it would be preclusively unlikely (if anyone is actually thinking that) for another upper end event to affect the SE U.S. this season. ...what i mean by 'upper end' is borderline cat 2/3... anyway, there is enough heat content in the Caribbean to spawn a notable system (not necessarily historic but strong nonetheless), and it is equally as conceivable with teleconnectors the way they are, that a semi-permanent conduit could set up shop from the Yucatan to off the NC Coast, being that there is a trough axis tending to situation near 85 W in the ensemble means. that may change way out in time, because i'm seeing a hints, frets and tendencies in some of the clusters for heights to lower over davis straight and greenland...that would tend to flip the nao more neutral if not positive for a time being and a good opportunity for mid-latitude blocking ridge/indian summer for the mid-atlantic and new england.....that is, should these hints and frets and tendencies be more than just computer enhance haluciations (those have gotten me in the past!) for the time being, however, i think that it is not uncommon to have such a conduit.. not only that..."if" you develop a system near to it but no "in" it, that conduit can actually aid in development by exciting outflow channels... we saw this rather classically with wilma, in that she had an unbelievably powerful polarward outflow channel, which was established about the time she ended up locked in the entrance region of the trough that ultimately spawned the unrelated nor'easter... not only that, system caught up in these type of conduits (actually they are mwcb's - warm conveyor belts) will suffer minimal environmental shear because they are moving smartly along with the flow.
...lot's to consider....but, i'd say not only should the nw caribbean monitor, i think that is a hint georgraphically for florida and so forth as well...
Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Oct 26 2005 12:51 PM)