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Recon finding #Sam a vigorous Cat 4 and may be knocking on Cat 5 w/ a tight inner core. Hopefully staying away from land.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 12 (Nicholas) , Major: 28 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1082 (Michael) Major: 1082 (Michael)
13.9N 50.2W
Wind: 145MPH
Pres: 943mb
Moving:
Wnw at 8 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: latest TWO
      Wed Oct 26 2005 01:35 PM

NHC has moved floater1 to 90L, and floater2 to 91L.

While there is clear rotation and good outflow, for 90L on the visual sat images I think some of what looks to be rotation on the east, flowing to the north, is actually convection being blown off by shear.

The shear analysis indicates more favorable outflow than yesterday, and that does appear to be true, but I'm not convinced that what i am seeing on sat is the shear pattern on the analysis. It seems like at the moment, there is a little more shear than identified...that 20kt shear actually looks to be a little more to the west than indicated (the shear analysis hasn't always told the correct story this year). But overall it's in an area of lower shear, relative to other areas of the Carib, and there is warm water in the forecasted direction of drift, and we have all seen how important outflow is this season. It is forecast likely to turn west instead of heading due N, and that's good because north of 15N there is still a lot of warm water left in the Caribbean, just north of the track taken by Wilma, all the way from Cayman to just SW of Cuba's western tip.

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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida MikeCAdministrator Wed Oct 26 2005 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida KC   Tue Oct 25 2005 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida trinibaje   Tue Oct 25 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida tpratch   Tue Oct 25 2005 12:01 PM
. * * latest TWO Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 25 2005 12:14 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 12:50 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO ChessieStorm   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:22 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:10 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Cindi   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:14 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Wxwatcher2   Tue Oct 25 2005 10:02 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO collegemom   Tue Oct 25 2005 10:54 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO GoBigSurf   Tue Oct 25 2005 11:12 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO HanKFranK   Wed Oct 26 2005 01:24 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:07 AM
. * * 90/91 HanKFranK   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:28 AM
. * * Re: 90/91 Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:10 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Random Chaos   Wed Oct 26 2005 07:34 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:27 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 12:35 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:30 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:14 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO damejune2   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:54 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 25 2005 05:28 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO scottsvb   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Random Chaos   Tue Oct 25 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Convergence   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:50 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:16 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:30 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO satellite steve   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:46 PM
. * * Rating storms Bloodstar   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Rating storms Margie   Tue Oct 25 2005 05:01 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:25 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:45 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO CoalCracker   Tue Oct 25 2005 08:31 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO NWBroward   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:28 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:35 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Tue Oct 25 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO FreakedInFlorida   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:05 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:12 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO CoalCracker   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:26 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Tue Oct 25 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO satellite steve   Tue Oct 25 2005 10:02 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO satellite steve   Tue Oct 25 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO KC   Tue Oct 25 2005 05:46 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Katie   Tue Oct 25 2005 06:12 PM
. * * Picking up pieces Bloodstar   Tue Oct 25 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Picking up pieces Random Chaos   Tue Oct 25 2005 08:42 PM
. * * New Systems? NONAME   Tue Oct 25 2005 08:31 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 05:23 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Clark   Wed Oct 26 2005 12:44 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:40 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 26 2005 12:10 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 01:35 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 12:37 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO JMII   Wed Oct 26 2005 01:34 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO wiley   Wed Oct 26 2005 12:52 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:23 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:41 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Tue Oct 25 2005 04:58 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:05 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO harmlc.ath.cx   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:12 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO HanKFranK   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:24 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:06 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Beaumont, TX   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO tpratch   Tue Oct 25 2005 01:30 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:35 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Ed in Va   Tue Oct 25 2005 02:49 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:26 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Katie   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:02 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Ed in Va   Tue Oct 25 2005 03:05 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Kimster   Tue Oct 25 2005 01:46 PM

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