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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist

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Posts: 1710

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics
Wed Oct 26 2005 06:27 PM

Looks an awful lot like the Bay of Campeche systems that we've seen this year, doesn't it? The actual LLC is just north of the Panamanian coastline and not too far from Nicaragua. Current steering pattern would tend to favor keeping it pretty much where it is, steered only by Beta drift (weak as it may be for such a small, low-latitude storm) and any sort of reorganization due to convective features. A trough off to the west of the storm isn't strong enough to hinder development or allow it to get caught up in the midst of the flow toward the NE -- not yet, at least -- while it is pretty much planted directly underneath a small-scalre upper level ridge. Creates a pretty favorable environment for development but doesn't foretell a lot of movement.

Best call is for a slow drift to the NW over the next couple of days; how strong it is then will play a role in whether or not it continues across central America or remains off-shore and ultimately recurves. As noted yesterday, it's one of those divergent solutions -- either across and toward the Pacific, or up and out to sea likely through Cuba and the Bahamas. Given current organizational trends, it'll probably get classified as our 26th depression tonight or early tomorrow and likely end up as Beta before too long. Biggest hindrance to development is going to be whether or not it gets closer to/moves over land. If so, it'll likely end up like the Bay of Campeche disturbances; if not, it's got a shot at something a little more, a la Stan. One to watch.

Wave near the Lesser Antilles has a shot, but needs to slow down first and become better organized. Largely just a mess of convection right now, but conditions should become a bit more favorable over the next day or two. As HF mentioned in the other thread, it'll likely end up relatively close to 90L/future Beta? at some point, making the ultimate forecast for both just a tad bit trickier. Not a sure bet to develop in the least, but worth watching.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.	MikeC	Wed Oct 26 2005 06:27 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.	Beach	Fri Oct 28 2005 09:42 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.	wulrich	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:15 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:21 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.	Thunderbird12	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:27 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 06:10 PM
Other areas?	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:06 PM
Beta	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:16 PM
Re: Beta	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:40 PM
Re: Beta	Clark	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:08 PM
Re: Beta	Beaumont, TX	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:00 PM
Nicaragua Population	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:40 PM
ODT	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:59 PM
Beta	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:06 PM
Re: Beta	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:15 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	damejune2	Wed Oct 26 2005 04:44 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Thunderbird12	Wed Oct 26 2005 05:16 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	rd261	Wed Oct 26 2005 05:27 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Thunderbird12	Wed Oct 26 2005 05:33 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Wed Oct 26 2005 06:15 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 06:50 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 08:03 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Thunderbird12	Wed Oct 26 2005 05:24 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Clark	Wed Oct 26 2005 06:27 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Wed Oct 26 2005 08:24 PM
Evening TWD Highlights	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:15 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Thunderbird12	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:11 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:23 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:20 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	HanKFranK	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:50 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:41 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:50 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:56 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:11 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Clark	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:32 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:08 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	doug	Thu Oct 27 2005 12:16 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 12:32 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	HanKFranK	Thu Oct 27 2005 01:52 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 02:36 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Littlebit	Thu Oct 27 2005 03:57 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	damejune2	Thu Oct 27 2005 04:46 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Clark	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:59 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:49 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Old Sailor	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:56 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:03 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	La Nimo	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:30 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	HanKFranK	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:58 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:06 AM
Beta...	danielw	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:03 AM
Re: Beta...	BullitNutz	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:15 AM
Re: Beta...	danielw	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:37 AM
Re: Beta...	meranto	Fri Oct 28 2005 07:25 AM
Re: Beta...	BullitNutz	Fri Oct 28 2005 07:36 AM
Re: Beta...	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 07:51 AM
Re: Beta...	BullitNutz	Fri Oct 28 2005 07:55 AM
Re: Beta...	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 09:20 AM
Re: Beta...	Thunderbird12	Fri Oct 28 2005 09:43 AM
Re: Beta...	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 11:41 AM
Wilma wilma	Robert	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:34 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:59 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	scottsvb	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:51 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	trinibaje	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:23 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	twizted sizter	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:37 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	craigm	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:17 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	emackl	Fri Oct 28 2005 01:28 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	Thunderbird12	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:48 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	twizted sizter	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:54 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:59 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	Thunderbird12	Fri Oct 28 2005 03:05 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 03:11 PM
take	HanKFranK	Fri Oct 28 2005 03:35 PM
Devil's advocate	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 04:34 PM
Re: Devil's advocate	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 05:16 PM
Re: Devil's advocate	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 05:25 PM
Re: Devil's advocate	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 05:34 PM
Re: Devil's advocate	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:01 PM
Re: Devil's advocate	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 05:47 PM
Re: Devil's advocate	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:29 PM
More model questions	Random Chaos	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:02 PM
Re: More model questions	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:42 PM
Re: take	Old Sailor	Fri Oct 28 2005 03:43 PM
Re: take	emackl	Fri Oct 28 2005 03:41 PM
Vortex	Thunderbird12	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:58 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	scottsvb	Fri Oct 28 2005 01:54 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	JMII	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:46 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:44 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:50 PM
Re: Beta...	damejune2	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:08 PM
Re: Beta...	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:24 PM
Re: Beta...	Steve H1	Fri Oct 28 2005 11:32 AM
Re: Beta...	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:12 PM
Re: Beta...	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 07:15 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:38 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Ed in Va	Thu Oct 27 2005 04:50 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Thunderbird12	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:21 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	ralphfl	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:13 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	bobbutts	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:14 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Storm Hunter	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:48 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Ned	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:58 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	StPeteBill	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:03 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Ned	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:34 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	GuppieGrouper	Fri Oct 28 2005 07:10 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 04:19 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Bloodstar	Thu Oct 27 2005 02:34 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Clark	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:01 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:24 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:34 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:41 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:48 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:51 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:56 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 12:18 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Thu Oct 27 2005 12:28 AM
TD 26 and 91L	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 02:09 AM
Re: TD 26 and 91L	Hugh	Thu Oct 27 2005 07:00 AM
Re: TD 26	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 03:10 AM
Tropical Storm BETA	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 04:57 AM
Re: Tropical Storm BETA	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:48 AM
Re: Tropical Storm BETA	Beaumont, TX	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:07 AM
Re: Tropical Storm BETA	Thunderbird12	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:26 AM
Re: Tropical Storm BETA	Hootowl	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:57 AM
Re: Tropical Storm BETA	doug	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:14 AM
Re: Tropical Storm BETA	Thunderbird12	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:43 AM
Model Runs	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 12:08 AM
Re: Model Runs	typhoon_tip	Thu Oct 27 2005 12:20 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:04 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:17 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Random Chaos	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:04 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:05 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Random Chaos	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:07 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Random Chaos	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:20 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:46 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	CoalCracker	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:45 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:40 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	GuppieGrouper	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:35 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Ned	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:50 PM
Depression #26 Forms	recmod	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:35 PM
Re: Depression #26 Forms	Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:14 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 05:38 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	JMII	Wed Oct 26 2005 05:13 PM

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