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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

danielw
Moderator

Reged:
Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)

Tropical Storm BETA
Thu Oct 27 2005 04:57 AM

TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...RECORD 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF SEASON FORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/270855.shtml

Excerpts from the 5 AM EDT Discussion.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 35 KT...AND THEY ARE ONLY THAT LOW DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO CORRESPOND TO AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM...BUT THE WINDS HAVE PROBABLY NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CLOUD SIGNATURE.
THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS...
MAKING BETA THE RECORD-SETTING 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON.emphasis added~danielw

MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ENOUGH RIDGING TO DEVELOP IN PLACE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TO EVENTUALLY TURN BETA WESTWARD INTO NICARAGUA...BUT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR.
OVERALL THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...
AND NONE OF THEM BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEPT ALONG THE SAME PATH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
BUT SLOWED DOWN TO NUDGE TOWARD THE GUIDANCE.

FURTHER... SINCE THE 36 HOUR FORECAST
IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITHIN
36 HOURS IN THE AREAS ALREADY UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO CONTACT NICARAGUA REGARDING
THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/270900.shtml

Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 27 2005 05:21 AM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.	MikeC	Thu Oct 27 2005 04:57 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.	Beach	Fri Oct 28 2005 09:42 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.	wulrich	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:15 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:21 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.	Thunderbird12	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:27 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 06:10 PM
Other areas?	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:06 PM
Beta	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:16 PM
Re: Beta	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:40 PM
Re: Beta	Clark	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:08 PM
Re: Beta	Beaumont, TX	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:00 PM
Nicaragua Population	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:40 PM
ODT	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:59 PM
Beta	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:06 PM
Re: Beta	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:15 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	damejune2	Wed Oct 26 2005 04:44 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Thunderbird12	Wed Oct 26 2005 05:16 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	rd261	Wed Oct 26 2005 05:27 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Thunderbird12	Wed Oct 26 2005 05:33 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Wed Oct 26 2005 06:15 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 06:50 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 08:03 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Thunderbird12	Wed Oct 26 2005 05:24 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Clark	Wed Oct 26 2005 06:27 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Wed Oct 26 2005 08:24 PM
Evening TWD Highlights	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:15 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Thunderbird12	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:11 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:23 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:20 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	HanKFranK	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:50 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:41 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:50 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:56 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:11 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Clark	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:32 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:08 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	doug	Thu Oct 27 2005 12:16 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 12:32 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	HanKFranK	Thu Oct 27 2005 01:52 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 02:36 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Littlebit	Thu Oct 27 2005 03:57 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	damejune2	Thu Oct 27 2005 04:46 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Clark	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:59 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:49 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Old Sailor	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:56 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:03 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	La Nimo	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:30 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	HanKFranK	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:58 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:06 AM
Beta...	danielw	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:03 AM
Re: Beta...	BullitNutz	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:15 AM
Re: Beta...	danielw	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:37 AM
Re: Beta...	meranto	Fri Oct 28 2005 07:25 AM
Re: Beta...	BullitNutz	Fri Oct 28 2005 07:36 AM
Re: Beta...	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 07:51 AM
Re: Beta...	BullitNutz	Fri Oct 28 2005 07:55 AM
Re: Beta...	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 09:20 AM
Re: Beta...	Thunderbird12	Fri Oct 28 2005 09:43 AM
Re: Beta...	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 11:41 AM
Wilma wilma	Robert	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:34 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:59 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	scottsvb	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:51 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	trinibaje	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:23 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	twizted sizter	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:37 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	craigm	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:17 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	emackl	Fri Oct 28 2005 01:28 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	Thunderbird12	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:48 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	twizted sizter	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:54 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:59 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	Thunderbird12	Fri Oct 28 2005 03:05 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 03:11 PM
take	HanKFranK	Fri Oct 28 2005 03:35 PM
Devil's advocate	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 04:34 PM
Re: Devil's advocate	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 05:16 PM
Re: Devil's advocate	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 05:25 PM
Re: Devil's advocate	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 05:34 PM
Re: Devil's advocate	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:01 PM
Re: Devil's advocate	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 05:47 PM
Re: Devil's advocate	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:29 PM
More model questions	Random Chaos	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:02 PM
Re: More model questions	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:42 PM
Re: take	Old Sailor	Fri Oct 28 2005 03:43 PM
Re: take	emackl	Fri Oct 28 2005 03:41 PM
Vortex	Thunderbird12	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:58 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	scottsvb	Fri Oct 28 2005 01:54 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	JMII	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:46 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:44 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:50 PM
Re: Beta...	damejune2	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:08 PM
Re: Beta...	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:24 PM
Re: Beta...	Steve H1	Fri Oct 28 2005 11:32 AM
Re: Beta...	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:12 PM
Re: Beta...	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 07:15 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:38 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Ed in Va	Thu Oct 27 2005 04:50 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Thunderbird12	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:21 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	ralphfl	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:13 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	bobbutts	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:14 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Storm Hunter	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:48 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Ned	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:58 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	StPeteBill	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:03 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Ned	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:34 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	GuppieGrouper	Fri Oct 28 2005 07:10 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 04:19 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Bloodstar	Thu Oct 27 2005 02:34 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Clark	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:01 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:24 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:34 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:41 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:48 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:51 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:56 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 12:18 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Thu Oct 27 2005 12:28 AM
TD 26 and 91L	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 02:09 AM
Re: TD 26 and 91L	Hugh	Thu Oct 27 2005 07:00 AM
Re: TD 26	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 03:10 AM
Tropical Storm BETA	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 04:57 AM
Re: Tropical Storm BETA	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:48 AM
Re: Tropical Storm BETA	Beaumont, TX	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:07 AM
Re: Tropical Storm BETA	Thunderbird12	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:26 AM
Re: Tropical Storm BETA	Hootowl	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:57 AM
Re: Tropical Storm BETA	doug	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:14 AM
Re: Tropical Storm BETA	Thunderbird12	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:43 AM
Model Runs	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 12:08 AM
Re: Model Runs	typhoon_tip	Thu Oct 27 2005 12:20 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:04 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:17 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Random Chaos	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:04 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:05 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Random Chaos	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:07 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Random Chaos	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:20 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:46 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	CoalCracker	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:45 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:40 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	GuppieGrouper	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:35 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Ned	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:50 PM
Depression #26 Forms	recmod	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:35 PM
Re: Depression #26 Forms	Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:14 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 05:38 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	JMII	Wed Oct 26 2005 05:13 PM

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