Quote: Looking at the LBAR model it has shifted about 400 miles north in the last 24 hours, from tip of S Florida to Cedar Key, not doing a good job of forecasting.
yeah i mentioned that at the end; btw: none of that was a prediction...it was just some things i were considering regarding the way the BAM group of models work....and then wondering how that compared to the lbar...that all.. like i said in that post, can't make a cogent correction using this analysis...
pesky little storm though...very small.. in fact, that is why i am suspecting nhc keeps having to move the inland time, further out in time, because it appears to me the primary steering mechanism has to be beta effects, which indeed by theory would impart a nw movement, and the beta effect is in fact less effectual for small scaled disturbances. just an interesting point for me; but, if anything beta should be growing in time and if steering feild from S to N never materializes, a WNW motion should ensue - that is, going by this philosophy herein.
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