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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist

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Posts: 576

Re: Beta...
Fri Oct 28 2005 12:24 PM

Quote:

Typhoon Tip - Laymens terms huh....do any of these systems have a chance of hitting Fla or the other areas of the gulf coast??

Hi...sorry...
my own opinion is the threat is minimal at this time...
but...this is one of those times where i wish there was a crystal ball...
thing is, in the simplest terms, the situation "appears" to be getting more confusing this morning... i'll just number the considerations in no particular order of importance.
1) potentially another system near 75w; if that occurs in earnest, all bets on track guidance are off because obviously, it is so close in proximity to Beta that they'd likely interact in some form or another.
2) this looks very interesting on satellite but ....looks can be deceiving as we are forced to learn over and over again.
3) it is unclear how much ridge will develop near the upper gulf coast in lieu of troughing lifting out in eastern n/a over the next 72 hours. if that ridge is a stronger fixture, than you know it would be more of a block, which could impart a west component to the track. if it is a weaker after-glow of the trough, it would probably cause a little more than a stall to perhaps subtle westward drift.
4) "1)" + "2)" +"3)" = hign uncertainty.
5 there is an even large scale consideration in the synoptics of the hemisphere right now... (Are you familiar with indices??) basically, signals suggest a substantial patter change, one that should feature a stronger presents of the subtropical sw atlantic basin ridge out in time (beyond 72 hours); or at least one building w at low latitudes.. This could also exert an influence on track because it could nudge the whole playing field w in time, regardless of the smaller scale influencers surrounding cyclone interactions (should that take place) and ridge strengths..etc.

...in the end, with everything here to consider...(and I'm sure i've left some out)...the odds of any one location (even the size of a state in this case) cannot possibly be ascertained with any certainty at this time - which i'm sure you're ok with.. but, this is uniquely uncertain... any "cone" of probability is probably more like a gigantic semi-circle that is essential W - N - E, though not S.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.	MikeC	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:24 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.	Beach	Fri Oct 28 2005 09:42 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.	wulrich	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:15 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:21 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.	Thunderbird12	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:27 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 06:10 PM
Other areas?	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:06 PM
Beta	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:16 PM
Re: Beta	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:40 PM
Re: Beta	Clark	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:08 PM
Re: Beta	Beaumont, TX	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:00 PM
Nicaragua Population	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:40 PM
ODT	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:59 PM
Beta	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:06 PM
Re: Beta	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:15 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	damejune2	Wed Oct 26 2005 04:44 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Thunderbird12	Wed Oct 26 2005 05:16 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	rd261	Wed Oct 26 2005 05:27 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Thunderbird12	Wed Oct 26 2005 05:33 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Wed Oct 26 2005 06:15 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 06:50 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 08:03 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Thunderbird12	Wed Oct 26 2005 05:24 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Clark	Wed Oct 26 2005 06:27 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Wed Oct 26 2005 08:24 PM
Evening TWD Highlights	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:15 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Thunderbird12	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:11 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:23 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:20 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	HanKFranK	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:50 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:41 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:50 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:56 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:11 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Clark	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:32 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:08 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	doug	Thu Oct 27 2005 12:16 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 12:32 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	HanKFranK	Thu Oct 27 2005 01:52 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 02:36 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Littlebit	Thu Oct 27 2005 03:57 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	damejune2	Thu Oct 27 2005 04:46 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Clark	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:59 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:49 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Old Sailor	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:56 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:03 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	La Nimo	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:30 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	HanKFranK	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:58 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:06 AM
Beta...	danielw	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:03 AM
Re: Beta...	BullitNutz	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:15 AM
Re: Beta...	danielw	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:37 AM
Re: Beta...	meranto	Fri Oct 28 2005 07:25 AM
Re: Beta...	BullitNutz	Fri Oct 28 2005 07:36 AM
Re: Beta...	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 07:51 AM
Re: Beta...	BullitNutz	Fri Oct 28 2005 07:55 AM
Re: Beta...	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 09:20 AM
Re: Beta...	Thunderbird12	Fri Oct 28 2005 09:43 AM
Re: Beta...	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 11:41 AM
Wilma wilma	Robert	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:34 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:59 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	scottsvb	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:51 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	trinibaje	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:23 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	twizted sizter	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:37 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	craigm	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:17 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	emackl	Fri Oct 28 2005 01:28 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	Thunderbird12	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:48 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	twizted sizter	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:54 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:59 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	Thunderbird12	Fri Oct 28 2005 03:05 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 03:11 PM
take	HanKFranK	Fri Oct 28 2005 03:35 PM
Devil's advocate	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 04:34 PM
Re: Devil's advocate	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 05:16 PM
Re: Devil's advocate	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 05:25 PM
Re: Devil's advocate	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 05:34 PM
Re: Devil's advocate	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:01 PM
Re: Devil's advocate	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 05:47 PM
Re: Devil's advocate	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:29 PM
More model questions	Random Chaos	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:02 PM
Re: More model questions	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:42 PM
Re: take	Old Sailor	Fri Oct 28 2005 03:43 PM
Re: take	emackl	Fri Oct 28 2005 03:41 PM
Vortex	Thunderbird12	Fri Oct 28 2005 02:58 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	scottsvb	Fri Oct 28 2005 01:54 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	JMII	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:46 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:44 PM
Re: Wilma wilma	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:50 PM
Re: Beta...	damejune2	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:08 PM
Re: Beta...	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:24 PM
Re: Beta...	Steve H1	Fri Oct 28 2005 11:32 AM
Re: Beta...	typhoon_tip	Fri Oct 28 2005 12:12 PM
Re: Beta...	Margie	Fri Oct 28 2005 07:15 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:38 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Ed in Va	Thu Oct 27 2005 04:50 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Thunderbird12	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:21 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	ralphfl	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:13 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	bobbutts	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:14 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Storm Hunter	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:48 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Ned	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:58 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	StPeteBill	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:03 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Ned	Fri Oct 28 2005 06:34 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	GuppieGrouper	Fri Oct 28 2005 07:10 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 04:19 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Bloodstar	Thu Oct 27 2005 02:34 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Clark	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:01 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:24 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:34 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:41 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:48 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:51 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:56 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 12:18 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Thu Oct 27 2005 12:28 AM
TD 26 and 91L	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 02:09 AM
Re: TD 26 and 91L	Hugh	Thu Oct 27 2005 07:00 AM
Re: TD 26	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 03:10 AM
Tropical Storm BETA	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 04:57 AM
Re: Tropical Storm BETA	Margie	Thu Oct 27 2005 08:48 AM
Re: Tropical Storm BETA	Beaumont, TX	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:07 AM
Re: Tropical Storm BETA	Thunderbird12	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:26 AM
Re: Tropical Storm BETA	Hootowl	Thu Oct 27 2005 09:57 AM
Re: Tropical Storm BETA	doug	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:14 AM
Re: Tropical Storm BETA	Thunderbird12	Thu Oct 27 2005 10:43 AM
Model Runs	danielw	Thu Oct 27 2005 12:08 AM
Re: Model Runs	typhoon_tip	Thu Oct 27 2005 12:20 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:04 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:17 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Random Chaos	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:04 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:05 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Random Chaos	Wed Oct 26 2005 11:07 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Random Chaos	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:20 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:46 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	CoalCracker	Wed Oct 26 2005 10:45 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	danielw	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:40 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	GuppieGrouper	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:35 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	Ned	Thu Oct 27 2005 05:50 PM
Depression #26 Forms	recmod	Wed Oct 26 2005 09:35 PM
Re: Depression #26 Forms	Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes	Thu Oct 27 2005 11:14 AM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 26 2005 05:38 PM
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics	JMII	Wed Oct 26 2005 05:13 PM

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