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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Beta Moves West
      Sat Oct 29 2005 04:05 PM

it isn't moving much at all, but beta's northward momentum seems to have slackened off now. seems the weight of almost all the globals is more than that bullish northward motion beta insisted on taking from its inception. really hard to know if the intensity numbers provider are close to right, since the storm is still small and the eye is concealed by thunderstorm blow-off. recon will better fix that info this afternoon, but the storm could be anywhere inside the strength range suggested by the dvorak scores.
91L is not well defined anymore. the energy from it should propagate into the nw caribbean on the north side of then-inland beta, and get gummed up for a day or two. not very likely it can do something in that time, but a small chance will exist, as some of the models seem to see a weak low signature up there.
none of the models see more than a wave out of the feature near 50w, but it seems to have taken the forefront in terms of development candidates. it's been holding down persistent scattered convection on it's forward edge, and has a weak surface low at about 13n. upper low ahead of it should keep it under modest southerly shear, but it is moving into a high sst region and the shear profile may slowly relax over the next couple of days. pattern is modestly supportive of further development in the caribbean--with active waves like these the chances of such an event are high enough to merit attention.
HF 1605z29october

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Beta Now Category 3, Landfall in Nicaragua Later Today MikeCAdministrator Sat Oct 29 2005 04:05 PM
. * * Re: intensity forecast... Chemstud2004   Sun Oct 30 2005 05:59 AM
. * * Beta 0815Z danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:55 AM
. * * Beta-Major Hurricane danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 09:43 AM
. * * San Andreas Island danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 10:51 AM
. * * Re: San Andreas Island Cycloneye11   Sun Oct 30 2005 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes   Sat Oct 29 2005 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 01:11 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West ralphfl   Sat Oct 29 2005 02:47 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Random Chaos   Sat Oct 29 2005 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West HanKFranK   Sat Oct 29 2005 03:10 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Tak   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:53 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:46 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 29 2005 05:02 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Hugh   Sat Oct 29 2005 01:15 PM
. * * Hurricane Beta Random Chaos   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Fri Oct 28 2005 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Beaumont, TX   Sat Oct 29 2005 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West JohnS   Sat Oct 29 2005 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 29 2005 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Hugh   Sat Oct 29 2005 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Thunderbird12   Sat Oct 29 2005 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West HanKFranK   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West roatanisland   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West HanKFranK   Sat Oct 29 2005 06:58 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 29 2005 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West damejune2   Sat Oct 29 2005 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 29 2005 09:36 PM
. * * Thanks ftlaudbob   Sat Oct 29 2005 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Thanks SEFL   Sat Oct 29 2005 09:16 PM
. * * Re: Thanks jeangfl   Sun Oct 30 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Thanks weatherwatcher999   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Thanks GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Wxwatcher2   Sun Oct 30 2005 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Tropics Guy   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Thanks CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Oct 30 2005 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Thanks Random Chaos   Sun Oct 30 2005 02:39 AM
. * * Re: Thanks Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Sun Oct 30 2005 03:15 AM
. * * Re: Thanks Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 03:25 AM
. * * Beta: Category 2 Random Chaos   Sun Oct 30 2005 03:25 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 03:36 AM
. * * Final Intensity analysis Chemstud2004   Sun Oct 30 2005 05:47 AM
. * * Re: Final Intensity analysis Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 05:54 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 HanKFranK   Sun Oct 30 2005 04:57 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 05:44 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Annie Oakley   Sun Oct 30 2005 05:29 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Ned   Sun Oct 30 2005 11:53 AM
. * * Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST bobbutts   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST weatherwatcher999   Sun Oct 30 2005 02:39 PM
. * * Administrative Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 05:09 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West craigm   Sat Oct 29 2005 02:40 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Lee-Delray   Sat Oct 29 2005 01:49 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West La Nimo   Sat Oct 29 2005 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Lee-Delray   Sat Oct 29 2005 02:07 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Marlinfan65   Fri Oct 28 2005 11:48 PM

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