HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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Re: Beta Moves West
Sat Oct 29 2005 02:58 PM
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couple of comments:
1) beta's progress west, extrapolated, gives a landfall a little south of puerto cabezas around 04z or midnight eastern time. recon should shortly fix the intensity so we can get an idea of how fast it's deepening, and get a good idea of how much more it can do before making landfall. like the forecast says, cat 2 is the safest bet, though a small-core cat 3 wouldn't be surprising in the least. it has a definite hurricane signature on satellite, but by its compact size and eye being consistenly shrouded by convective blow-off the true intensity is hard to easily estimate.
2) what tip said about the beta/91L interaction. beta's circulation envelope is pressing against the slow, elongated gyre extending southeast of jamaica, but hasn't really entrained it. as beta will be ashore and weakening tomorrow, and this feature continuing to move through a moderately favorable development environment (ridging aloft, some surface convergence), it can potentially begin to assert itself.
3) potential recon for the surface low/spotty convection feature at 13/52 for halloween day. it is better defined than yesterday in spite of continued s/se shear from the upper low ahead of it. the upper low appears to be elongating and filling, which should result in an improved outflow pattern nearby.
in a nutshell, the idea of the caribbean crowding up isn't laid to rest by the finicky nature of 91L, as the original disturbance lingers and a new one approaches from the east.
HF 1858z29october
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