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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 283 (Idalia) , Major: 283 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 283 (Idalia) Major: 283 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Beta: Category 2
      Sun Oct 30 2005 04:57 AM

might be closing on 3. t-ratings are 5.0 and that's what it's set at.. but those are a little old. earlier i was thinking it would be making landfall about now, but it's not accelerating any more like i thought it would, as well as the fact it's moving wsw at about 240-245 and not due west. looks like the landfall may end up being closer to puerto limon than puerto cabezas. very compact storm... chances are not high the worst of the wind will cross an urban center.
gotta take issue with this quote from the 11pm disco:
THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD MOTION IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND THIS TURN
WAS BRILLIANTLY FORECAST BY THE GFDL AND BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS.
i don't know what planet avila has been on the last couple of days, but gfdl and the whole mess of globals have had this thing going due west from the get go.. and there was about 48 hrs of northward drift they simply didn't capture. not sure how that constitutes 'brilliant'. if the early gfdl was to be believed the storm would already be in the pacific ocean.
speaking of which, if the gfdl is really brilliant then beta will end up making it across to the pacific... as run after run it goes across. a lot of the other globals have it moving ashore further north and drifting through honduras, along a fat cross section of central america. the current sw motion is more in line with the gfs/gfdl crowd, and those models tend to push the storm further wsw and across (though admittedly the gfs has it too weak and kills it after a few hours onshore). i'll stay with the inland camp, but am keeping the possibility in the back of my mind. not a very big storm, and there's nothing to overtly suggest it will survive, even if it makes cat 3 in the next few hours.
the whole 91L mess to the rear has sort of spread out.. a lot of moisture went streaking off on the outflow jet from beta, but some of the residual vorticity is floating along near jamaica. beta will be losing influence over the area, and there is a strong convergence zone in the nw caribbean. final word isn't written on this thing yet, though it has very little chance of doing much.
new 92L looking no worse for wear. there's more convection, but the low cloud motions don't suggest any tightening of the circulation. there could be more going on in the flaring northern part of this feature, as cloud debris is obscuring the low level field. this system is very slowly getting more organized, though globals still don't see much anything to it. it's going to be moving over the warmest waters in the basin within the next two days, so if it's going to develop it'll likely happen before too much longer. there's another energetic low amplitude wave back near 30w, which the globals have roughly the same opinion of. westerlies are finally really chopping up waves above 10n out near the cv region, so the ability of defined waves to feed under the rather resilient subtropical ridge shielding the caribbean is on the wane. pattern shift is underway, and it will probably result in more of the basin becoming closed to development (outside of those nontropical-origin cutoffs that happen from time to time regardless of how the basin looks).
as things stand there's a modest potential for a follow-on to beta next week, with an extremely slim chance of a second. there's also a low but present chance that beta gets into the pacific as a viable entity and garbles the upper pattern evolution that most models are showing.
later everybody.
HF 0457z30october

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Beta Now Category 3, Landfall in Nicaragua Later Today MikeCAdministrator Sun Oct 30 2005 04:57 AM
. * * Re: intensity forecast... Chemstud2004   Sun Oct 30 2005 05:59 AM
. * * Beta 0815Z danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:55 AM
. * * Beta-Major Hurricane danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 09:43 AM
. * * San Andreas Island danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 10:51 AM
. * * Re: San Andreas Island Cycloneye11   Sun Oct 30 2005 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes   Sat Oct 29 2005 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 01:11 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West ralphfl   Sat Oct 29 2005 02:47 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Random Chaos   Sat Oct 29 2005 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West HanKFranK   Sat Oct 29 2005 03:10 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Tak   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:53 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:46 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 29 2005 05:02 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Hugh   Sat Oct 29 2005 01:15 PM
. * * Hurricane Beta Random Chaos   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Fri Oct 28 2005 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Beaumont, TX   Sat Oct 29 2005 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West JohnS   Sat Oct 29 2005 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 29 2005 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Hugh   Sat Oct 29 2005 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Thunderbird12   Sat Oct 29 2005 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West HanKFranK   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West roatanisland   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West HanKFranK   Sat Oct 29 2005 06:58 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 29 2005 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West damejune2   Sat Oct 29 2005 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 29 2005 09:36 PM
. * * Thanks ftlaudbob   Sat Oct 29 2005 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Thanks SEFL   Sat Oct 29 2005 09:16 PM
. * * Re: Thanks jeangfl   Sun Oct 30 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Thanks weatherwatcher999   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Thanks GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Wxwatcher2   Sun Oct 30 2005 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Tropics Guy   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Thanks CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Oct 30 2005 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Thanks Random Chaos   Sun Oct 30 2005 02:39 AM
. * * Re: Thanks Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Sun Oct 30 2005 03:15 AM
. * * Re: Thanks Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 03:25 AM
. * * Beta: Category 2 Random Chaos   Sun Oct 30 2005 03:25 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 03:36 AM
. * * Final Intensity analysis Chemstud2004   Sun Oct 30 2005 05:47 AM
. * * Re: Final Intensity analysis Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 05:54 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 HanKFranK   Sun Oct 30 2005 04:57 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 05:44 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Annie Oakley   Sun Oct 30 2005 05:29 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Ned   Sun Oct 30 2005 11:53 AM
. * * Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST bobbutts   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST weatherwatcher999   Sun Oct 30 2005 02:39 PM
. * * Administrative Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 05:09 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West craigm   Sat Oct 29 2005 02:40 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Lee-Delray   Sat Oct 29 2005 01:49 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West La Nimo   Sat Oct 29 2005 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Lee-Delray   Sat Oct 29 2005 02:07 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Marlinfan65   Fri Oct 28 2005 11:48 PM

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