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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes
      Tue Nov 01 2005 05:42 PM

near florida... that's a baroclinic profile. sheared environment along an old frontal boundary, set to merge with an oncoming front... naw, i wouldn't expect any tropical development out of it. may take over as the primary low as the shortwave picks it up, become a noreaster type system well offshore.
some of the modeling is showing a piece of the front it leaves tailing in and east of the bahamas, with an inverted trough moving along it to it from the east and inducing another surface low at the end of the week out to sea. probably will be too much shear around for it to do anything, in spite of warm ocean waters below.
the SOI downward pulse we've had hasn't translated to backing in the tropics yet. this late in the year it usually results in a monsoon trough-type feature in the sw caribbean across into the pacific, rather than the further westward feature that tends to form in the summer (esp in el nino years). not impossible that the western caribbean will remain a center of focus. active monsoon trough off africa as well, but waves are entering a rough zone in the central atlantic. itcz is depressed over the atlantic but far enough north that anything nearing the caribbean should be over water. the region from east of the islands to the western caribbean will remain the focal area for anything else that tries to start up in the current pattern.
until some blocking events or nao negative setting up, don't expect much in the way of subtropical hybrids. based on the circulation profile of the basin though, doesn't look like we're finished yet. october was exceptionally active (six storms, four hurricanes, two major)... with a similar pattern to late october holding i don't see why november won't try to cough up another storm or two.
then again it could be that my ability to sense inactivity is fried by the tremendous activity we've had this season and doesn't work anymore. sometimes an active october is followed by a quiet november (1995), or an active one (2001).
HF 2242z01november

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Nov 01 2005 05:42 PM
. * * November! Doombot!   Tue Nov 01 2005 01:34 AM
. * * Re: November! HanKFranK   Tue Nov 01 2005 01:58 AM
. * * Re: November! Lee-Delray   Tue Nov 01 2005 11:58 AM
. * * Re: November! Random Chaos   Tue Nov 01 2005 01:39 PM
. * * Re: November! Lee-Delray   Tue Nov 01 2005 01:45 PM
. * * Re: November! Tak   Tue Nov 01 2005 05:22 PM
. * * Re: November! Lee-Delray   Tue Nov 01 2005 05:30 PM
. * * Re: November! Tak   Tue Nov 01 2005 05:33 PM
. * * Re: November! *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Lee-Delray   Tue Nov 01 2005 06:00 PM
. * * Re: November! Tak   Tue Nov 01 2005 06:12 PM
. * * Re: November! Margie   Wed Nov 02 2005 11:39 AM
. * * Re: November! Scrappy   Wed Nov 02 2005 05:12 PM
. * * Re: November! Margie   Thu Nov 03 2005 06:15 PM
. * * Re: November! NONAME   Thu Nov 03 2005 06:53 PM
. * * Re: November! NONAME   Thu Nov 03 2005 06:57 PM
. * * Re: November! NONAME   Wed Nov 02 2005 07:16 AM
. * * Re: November! Random Chaos   Wed Nov 02 2005 07:14 AM
. * * Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes Old Sailor   Mon Oct 31 2005 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Mon Oct 31 2005 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes Beaumont, TX   Mon Oct 31 2005 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes Lee-Delray   Tue Nov 01 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes scottsvb   Tue Nov 01 2005 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes HanKFranK   Tue Nov 01 2005 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes damejune2   Sun Oct 30 2005 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* the young weatherman   Sun Oct 30 2005 02:45 PM
. * * ENSO HanKFranK   Sun Oct 30 2005 04:20 PM
. * * 92L Bloodstar   Sun Oct 30 2005 05:54 PM
. * * The "Ls" danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:22 PM
. * * Re: The "Ls" Old Sailor   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:33 PM
. * * Re: The "Ls" danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 09:45 PM
. * * I am back from Wilma WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Oct 31 2005 08:43 AM
. * * Re: I am back from Wilma Margie   Mon Oct 31 2005 01:08 PM
. * * Re: I am back from Wilma dave foster   Mon Oct 31 2005 07:23 PM
. * * Re: I am back from Wilma Multi-Decadal Signal   Mon Oct 31 2005 08:46 PM
. * * Re: I am back from Wilma dave foster   Mon Oct 31 2005 10:15 PM
. * * Re: I am back from Wilma damejune2   Mon Oct 31 2005 06:59 PM
. * * Re: I am back from Wilma CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Oct 31 2005 04:15 PM
. * * Re: I am back from Wilma Psyber   Mon Oct 31 2005 04:23 PM
. * * Re: I am back from Wilma Lee-Delray   Mon Oct 31 2005 04:48 PM
. * * Re: I am back from Wilma damejune2   Mon Oct 31 2005 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 30 2005 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 12:23 PM

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