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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: looking out
      Thu Nov 10 2005 11:58 AM

The pattern is finally changing across the US, but it's not going to one to enhance the potential for tropical formation in our basin. It's that time of year where we get deep troughs entering the Gulf of Alaska, sitting and spinning for a couple of days, then moving SE toward British Columbia/Washington as much weaker systems. We tend to see a lot of cut-off lows near southern California in this type of regime: one forming, getting ejected into the midlatitude pattern again about 3-5 days later, and another one taking it's place. We've got a similar setup now, with a cut-off low that appears primed to eject into California off of the west coast right now.

In our basin, that's translating to a trough just off of the east coast with a reinforcing shortwave behind it. An upper-ridge, which previously was fairly stationary and better defined, is located near western Cuba. There's a lot of really dry air and mid-level shear associated with this wave, squelching any activity. Everything east of 50W is done; despite what we have seen this year so far, I am pretty confident in saying that we're not going to see anything out there for the rest of the season. The most favorable region right now is the extreme SW Caribbean just north of Panama, where Beta formed, but this favorable region is confined so close to land that it's going to take the ridge sliding a bit back toward the north and a shortwave north of Puerto Rico lifting out to get something going.

Potential for a hybrid or subtropical-tropical conversion system always needs to be watched this time of year, but we're probably quiet for at least another 3 days overall...and potentially longer. Models are picking up on something in the Caribbean later on into the weekend, but all of them have it at the end of/connecting with a frontal boundary in the central Caribbean except for the GFS. Not sold on the tropical nature/organization of what may form yet, nor am I sold on something actually getting going there. Nevertheless, it is still the 2005 hurricane season...if we thought anything could happen last year, we've really seen that this year.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean MikeCAdministrator Thu Nov 10 2005 11:58 AM
. * * Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean Wingman51   Fri Nov 04 2005 08:35 AM
. * * Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean Margie   Fri Nov 04 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 05 2005 05:25 AM
. * * Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean Margie   Sat Nov 05 2005 10:08 AM
. * * Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean Storm Hunter   Sun Nov 06 2005 04:29 PM
. * * Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean Beaumont, TX   Sun Nov 06 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean Storm Hunter   Mon Nov 07 2005 01:22 AM
. * * Re: Wilam Article Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 07 2005 09:14 AM
. * * Re: Wilam Article ftlaudbob   Mon Nov 07 2005 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Wilma Article Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 07 2005 09:45 AM
. * * Re: Wilma Article Margie   Mon Nov 07 2005 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Wilma Article HanKFranK   Mon Nov 07 2005 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Wilma Article Margie   Mon Nov 07 2005 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Wilma Article Lysis   Mon Nov 07 2005 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Wilma Article Margie   Mon Nov 07 2005 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Wilma Article ftlaudbob   Tue Nov 08 2005 09:56 PM
. * * Re: Wilma Article Tropics Guy   Tue Nov 08 2005 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Wilma Article Random Chaos   Wed Nov 09 2005 07:14 AM
. * * looking out HanKFranK   Tue Nov 08 2005 01:41 AM
. * * Re: looking out Doombot!   Thu Nov 10 2005 02:29 AM
. * * Re: looking out Random Chaos   Thu Nov 10 2005 06:13 AM
. * * Re: looking out Clark   Thu Nov 10 2005 11:58 AM
. * * Re: looking out HanKFranK   Thu Nov 10 2005 01:20 PM
. * * Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* damejune2   Thu Nov 10 2005 05:07 PM
. * * Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* MapMaster   Thu Nov 10 2005 06:38 PM
. * * Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Random Chaos   Fri Nov 11 2005 06:48 PM
. * * Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Margie   Fri Nov 11 2005 08:56 PM
. * * Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* HanKFranK   Sat Nov 12 2005 12:02 PM
. * * Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* damejune2   Sat Nov 12 2005 06:42 PM
. * * 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? NONAME   Sat Nov 12 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? Random Chaos   Sat Nov 12 2005 11:09 PM
. * * Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? HanKFranK   Sun Nov 13 2005 12:20 AM
. * * Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? Margie   Sun Nov 13 2005 12:57 AM
. * * Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? Random Chaos   Sun Nov 13 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Nov 13 2005 01:18 PM
. * * Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? NONAME   Sun Nov 13 2005 07:52 PM
. * * Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? Old Sailor   Sun Nov 13 2005 08:07 PM
. * * Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Nov 13 2005 09:16 PM
. * * TD 27 CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Nov 13 2005 09:52 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Doombot!   Sun Nov 13 2005 11:03 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Margie   Sun Nov 13 2005 10:16 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Hurricane Dad   Sun Nov 13 2005 10:44 PM
. * * 93L Old Sailor   Sat Nov 12 2005 03:10 PM
. * * Re: 93L CoalCracker   Sat Nov 12 2005 04:51 PM
. * * Re: looking out Clark   Thu Nov 10 2005 06:10 PM
. * * Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Lee-Delray   Thu Nov 10 2005 05:14 PM
. * * Re: looking out Random Chaos   Thu Nov 10 2005 05:50 PM
. * * Re: looking out Lee-Delray   Thu Nov 10 2005 05:37 PM
. * * Re: looking out Margie   Thu Nov 10 2005 06:11 PM
. * * Re: looking out Lee-Delray   Thu Nov 10 2005 07:54 AM
. * * Re: looking out Margie   Thu Nov 10 2005 11:32 AM
. * * Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean doug   Fri Nov 04 2005 12:32 PM

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