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Invest 95L near 100% chance to develop, advisories likely to come later today. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm Watches are possible later tonight for parts of the Windward islands of the Caribbean. Area east of that 30% chance. 94L 30% chance.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 303 (Idalia) , Major: 303 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 303 (Idalia) Major: 303 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

Re: looking out
Thu Nov 10 2005 01:20 PM

there hasn't been great model consistency over the past few days as to what's going to happen in the caribbean next week, but they're getting a bit more persistent. nogaps and gfs have a low pressure forming between panama/colombia and jamaica with a weaker low near the ne caribbean (nogaps takes it ne, then cuts it off like a hybrid storm), ukmet has a big broad low in the central caribbean.. and the canadian has a pokey little hybrid to the east sort of like nogaps.
the 200mb winds on gfs are what's got my interest more piqued than before. they are showing upper ridging in the western caribbean as next week wears on. if that is the case and there's the kind of convergence the models are indicating at the surface, something will be up. the feature to the east looks less likely, as it is shown getting carried up into the kind of shear that would shred it. noteworthy that the gfs has no subtropical ridge above it, just a westerly 500mb jet. the prog it gives is a meandering low pressure/tropical cyclone that is still in the caribbean around thanksgiving. i'm thinking that if a real system existed, it would track something more along the lines of lenny in 1999 or odette in 2003.
checked some joe b comments, and he thinks something is up. the disturbed weather around panama has been inching a little poleward, so keep an eye on the area during the weekend.
later all.
HF 1820z10november

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean	MikeC	Thu Nov 10 2005 01:20 PM
Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean	Wingman51	Fri Nov 04 2005 08:35 AM
Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean	Margie	Fri Nov 04 2005 12:32 PM
Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean	danielw	Sat Nov 05 2005 05:25 AM
Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean	Margie	Sat Nov 05 2005 10:08 AM
Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sun Nov 06 2005 04:29 PM
Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean	Beaumont, TX	Sun Nov 06 2005 06:43 PM
Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Mon Nov 07 2005 01:22 AM
Re: Wilam Article	Lee-Delray	Mon Nov 07 2005 09:14 AM
Re: Wilam Article	ftlaudbob	Mon Nov 07 2005 09:31 AM
Re: Wilma Article	Lee-Delray	Mon Nov 07 2005 09:45 AM
Re: Wilma Article	Margie	Mon Nov 07 2005 12:34 PM
Re: Wilma Article	HanKFranK	Mon Nov 07 2005 04:41 PM
Re: Wilma Article	Margie	Mon Nov 07 2005 05:54 PM
Re: Wilma Article	Lysis	Mon Nov 07 2005 06:45 PM
Re: Wilma Article	Margie	Mon Nov 07 2005 10:46 PM
Re: Wilma Article	ftlaudbob	Tue Nov 08 2005 09:56 PM
Re: Wilma Article	Tropics Guy	Tue Nov 08 2005 10:14 PM
Re: Wilma Article	Random Chaos	Wed Nov 09 2005 07:14 AM
looking out	HanKFranK	Tue Nov 08 2005 01:41 AM
Re: looking out	Doombot!	Thu Nov 10 2005 02:29 AM
Re: looking out	Random Chaos	Thu Nov 10 2005 06:13 AM
Re: looking out	Clark	Thu Nov 10 2005 11:58 AM
Re: looking out	HanKFranK	Thu Nov 10 2005 01:20 PM
Re: looking out Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	damejune2	Thu Nov 10 2005 05:07 PM
Re: looking out Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	MapMaster	Thu Nov 10 2005 06:38 PM
Re: looking out Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	Random Chaos	Fri Nov 11 2005 06:48 PM
Re: looking out Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	Margie	Fri Nov 11 2005 08:56 PM
Re: looking out Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	HanKFranK	Sat Nov 12 2005 12:02 PM
Re: looking out Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	damejune2	Sat Nov 12 2005 06:42 PM
93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!?	NONAME	Sat Nov 12 2005 10:20 PM
Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!?	Random Chaos	Sat Nov 12 2005 11:09 PM
Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!?	HanKFranK	Sun Nov 13 2005 12:20 AM
Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!?	Margie	Sun Nov 13 2005 12:57 AM
Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!?	Random Chaos	Sun Nov 13 2005 09:36 AM
Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!?	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sun Nov 13 2005 01:18 PM
Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!?	NONAME	Sun Nov 13 2005 07:52 PM
Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!?	Old Sailor	Sun Nov 13 2005 08:07 PM
Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!?	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sun Nov 13 2005 09:16 PM
TD 27	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sun Nov 13 2005 09:52 PM
Re: TD 27	Doombot!	Sun Nov 13 2005 11:03 PM
Re: TD 27	Margie	Sun Nov 13 2005 10:16 PM
Re: TD 27	Hurricane Dad	Sun Nov 13 2005 10:44 PM
93L	Old Sailor	Sat Nov 12 2005 03:10 PM
Re: 93L	CoalCracker	Sat Nov 12 2005 04:51 PM
Re: looking out	Clark	Thu Nov 10 2005 06:10 PM
Re: looking out Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	Lee-Delray	Thu Nov 10 2005 05:14 PM
Re: looking out	Random Chaos	Thu Nov 10 2005 05:50 PM
Re: looking out	Lee-Delray	Thu Nov 10 2005 05:37 PM
Re: looking out	Margie	Thu Nov 10 2005 06:11 PM
Re: looking out	Lee-Delray	Thu Nov 10 2005 07:54 AM
Re: looking out	Margie	Thu Nov 10 2005 11:32 AM
Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean	doug	Fri Nov 04 2005 12:32 PM

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