Right as of this evening, conditions don't look as good as they did a week ago when a LLC formed, but was then mashed into the S Nic coast before it could develop any lasting convection. But clearly shear has reduced right in that little notch north of western Panama, even if the shear analysis doesn't quite show it. And according to the cimss product, vorticity there is definitely better than a week ago, on both coastlines.
Well, perhaps another interesting week ahead, but definitely nothing to be thrilled about if you happen to be in Nicaragua. I think the same thing will occur as last week, even if there is some development right there in the next couple days: it'll be ashore before it really can get going. And if something develops there in the EastPac, it'll be heading out to sea.
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Hey, look...I just sat down at the computer after getting home and eating a dinner, and checked out the floater, and gee, things are starting to cook down there in the SW Caribbean. I think I even see some circulation at about 9.5N 81W, right in the niche where I noticed there isn't that much shear (it looks like there is some, but nothing compared to what is surrounding it). That shear will aid outflow. Something to watch this evng.
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Thu Nov 10 2005 08:15 PM)