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90L's remnants are now inland, nothing developed. A generally quiet Atlantic is likely until later in August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 277 (Zeta) , Major: 339 (Laura) Florida - Any: 1026 (Michael) Major: 1026 (Michael)
 


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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
      Sat Nov 12 2005 12:02 PM

thats a meso convective system core. it probably has a little turning at the surface, but it doesn't have the organized convection of a tropical cyclone. very low latitude and marginal environmental conditions, so i doubt it will do much. stuff generally doesn't form that close to central america on the pacific side.
the features of interest on the atlantic side, if they do anything, will develop very slowly... almost like geologic time. the models are divergent again about what's what and where. gfs has pretty much lost interest in an organized system in its recent runs, and now just shows a general region of disturbed weather in the caribbean. haven't seen the 12z on anything else, but nogaps was favoring a system north of panama, and the canadian has a spurious looking system in the eastern caribbean that develops quickly and charges into heavy shear. euro is still showing generalized low pressure but no tropical cyclone.. while hpc's prog shows a tropical low in the western caribbean (this is nearly 24hrs old, though).
at the surface the weather near panama looks nowhere near organization, though the environmental conditions are such that something could fester there, and slowly develop once the ridging that models have been predicting in the western caribbean for days starts to pump up early next week.
to the east, near 10/56 there's actually a fairly impressive blow up along a wave, under light westerly shear. the wind field is curled around but not closed off. very hostile conditions to the north... but if it hangs out at the latitude it's at and moves slowly, that will be something worth watching. the globals have been suggesting two foci (not with great consistency) at either end of the caribbean for low pressure going into next week... that eastern deal was the one i doubted and it actually looks further along than panama right now.
bottom line: there's been enough model rumbling to suggest something may happen this week, joe b is clucking about it, and the synoptic pattern will at least allow disturbed weather to fester in the caribbean. whether we get a tropical cyclone (or in an insane situation two) out of all this is still 2-5 days out. i would rate the chances at this point as moderate.
HF 1658z12november

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean MikeCAdministrator Sat Nov 12 2005 12:02 PM
. * * Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean Wingman51   Fri Nov 04 2005 08:35 AM
. * * Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean Margie   Fri Nov 04 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 05 2005 05:25 AM
. * * Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean Margie   Sat Nov 05 2005 10:08 AM
. * * Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean Storm Hunter   Sun Nov 06 2005 04:29 PM
. * * Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean Beaumont, TX   Sun Nov 06 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean Storm Hunter   Mon Nov 07 2005 01:22 AM
. * * Re: Wilam Article Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 07 2005 09:14 AM
. * * Re: Wilam Article ftlaudbob   Mon Nov 07 2005 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Wilma Article Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 07 2005 09:45 AM
. * * Re: Wilma Article Margie   Mon Nov 07 2005 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Wilma Article HanKFranK   Mon Nov 07 2005 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Wilma Article Margie   Mon Nov 07 2005 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Wilma Article Lysis   Mon Nov 07 2005 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Wilma Article Margie   Mon Nov 07 2005 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Wilma Article ftlaudbob   Tue Nov 08 2005 09:56 PM
. * * Re: Wilma Article Tropics Guy   Tue Nov 08 2005 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Wilma Article Random Chaos   Wed Nov 09 2005 07:14 AM
. * * looking out HanKFranK   Tue Nov 08 2005 01:41 AM
. * * Re: looking out Doombot!   Thu Nov 10 2005 02:29 AM
. * * Re: looking out Random Chaos   Thu Nov 10 2005 06:13 AM
. * * Re: looking out Clark   Thu Nov 10 2005 11:58 AM
. * * Re: looking out HanKFranK   Thu Nov 10 2005 01:20 PM
. * * Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* damejune2   Thu Nov 10 2005 05:07 PM
. * * Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* MapMaster   Thu Nov 10 2005 06:38 PM
. * * Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Random Chaos   Fri Nov 11 2005 06:48 PM
. * * Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Margie   Fri Nov 11 2005 08:56 PM
. * * Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* HanKFranK   Sat Nov 12 2005 12:02 PM
. * * Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* damejune2   Sat Nov 12 2005 06:42 PM
. * * 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? NONAME   Sat Nov 12 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? Random Chaos   Sat Nov 12 2005 11:09 PM
. * * Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? HanKFranK   Sun Nov 13 2005 12:20 AM
. * * Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? Margie   Sun Nov 13 2005 12:57 AM
. * * Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? Random Chaos   Sun Nov 13 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Nov 13 2005 01:18 PM
. * * Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? NONAME   Sun Nov 13 2005 07:52 PM
. * * Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? Old Sailor   Sun Nov 13 2005 08:07 PM
. * * Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Nov 13 2005 09:16 PM
. * * TD 27 CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Nov 13 2005 09:52 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Doombot!   Sun Nov 13 2005 11:03 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Margie   Sun Nov 13 2005 10:16 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Hurricane Dad   Sun Nov 13 2005 10:44 PM
. * * 93L Old Sailor   Sat Nov 12 2005 03:10 PM
. * * Re: 93L CoalCracker   Sat Nov 12 2005 04:51 PM
. * * Re: looking out Clark   Thu Nov 10 2005 06:10 PM
. * * Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Lee-Delray   Thu Nov 10 2005 05:14 PM
. * * Re: looking out Random Chaos   Thu Nov 10 2005 05:50 PM
. * * Re: looking out Lee-Delray   Thu Nov 10 2005 05:37 PM
. * * Re: looking out Margie   Thu Nov 10 2005 06:11 PM
. * * Re: looking out Lee-Delray   Thu Nov 10 2005 07:54 AM
. * * Re: looking out Margie   Thu Nov 10 2005 11:32 AM
. * * Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean doug   Fri Nov 04 2005 12:32 PM

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