Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

From:
NWS Key West AFD-430pm EST Friday Nov 18th
.FORECAST...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION INTO A STRONGER TROPICAL STORM...WHILE BEING EVENTUALLY STEERED TOWARD WEST CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO SET UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT OF THIS FORECAST...THE KEYS PUBLIC AND COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS WERE MODIFIED TO INCLUDE
THE IMPACTS OF A PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL STORM NEAR THE REGION DURING MONDAY...WITH EFFECTS STARTING FOR THE WESTERN STRAITS AND MAYBE LOWER KEYS VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE OF COURSE IS LOW IN THE TRACK FOR A NEWLY-HATCHED SYSTEM WHICH IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED.

NWS Miami-241pm EST Friday Nov 18th
THERE IS A POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
DEVELOPING WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM REDEVELOPING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
AT THE PRESENT TIME, THIS SYSTEM WILL AT LEAST MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS
OR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE THE SYSTEM GETS NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA. THEN THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH.

NWS Melbourne 215pm EST Friday November 18th
SAT NIGHT...LATEST GFS INDICATING INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE VIGOROUS TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST TO DECREASE AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT MOISTURE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE INCREASE. MODEL POPS ARE 30-40 PERCENT SO HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
TO SCATTERED.

SUN-MON...MODEL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LIFT NORTHEAST...RATHER THAN A MORE CLASSICAL LOW FORMATION ALONG THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. THIS MAY BE AT LEAST PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROPICAL ENTITY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW DUE TO THIS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE VERY STRONG...70 KNOTS OR GREATER ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING A LOT OF NORTHWARD PROGRESS WITHOUT BEING STRONGLY SHEARED.

NWS Tampa 137pm EST Friday November 18th
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST THRU THE PERIOD. THE WRN SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH TO INDUCE AN
INVERTED TROF OVER THE ERN GULF BEGINNING SUNDAY. SFC FLOW OVER THE CWA WILL VEER THRU THE PERIOD FROM NNE TONIGHT TO SE BY SUN.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. GUIDANCE POPS JUMP TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY SUN.
PREVIOUS FORECAST BEGAN TO INCREASE POPS...AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND BUT STAY AT HIGH END SCT FOR NOW.
(a newer AFD exists...830pm EST, but there are no Tropical mentions.~danielw)

Full AFDs use links:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDEYW&max=51
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMFL&max=51
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMLB&max=51
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDTBW&version=1&max=51

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