New Article: CSU releases 2026 season numbers, slightly below average. https://flhurricane.com
Days since last Hurricane Landfall —
US Any:
554 (Milton),
US Major:
554 (Milton),
FL Any:
554 (Milton),
FL Major:
554 (Milton)
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
2006
Mon Nov 21 2005 10:00 PM
|
|
|
Thought I'd start 'er up early. Usually in November, a little before Dr. Gray (and heretofore Dr. Klotzbach, who's taken over the lead role) puts out his early December lead forecast for Atlantic activity, we put up a forum thread for folks who like to prognosticate about the next year's activity. You can put out your numbers and thoughts as to why we'll see an active/inactive/normal season. Come May when we're reassessing things at the edge of the oncoming season, you can adjust them once again with the context of your old forecast to fall back on. It's sort of a friendly competition, as we'll tally who gets the closest to the totals, and also have some sort alternate competition like 'when will the first named storm form?' or something.
Anyhow, here's the format, if you want your numbers to count. Present them in the following simple format:
11/6/2
Where 11 would be total named storms (including subtropcial systems), six would be total achieving hurricane strength, and 2 would be total achieving intense/category 3 hurricane strength.
It's not a bad idea to add your thoughts as to the what factors will be at play, i.e., QBO will be positive, ENSO will run neutral but there will be a warm pocket in Nino 3.4, the PDO and AMO parameters will be favorable... etc. From November it's hard to tell much about the coming season; all that stuff is more important in May, when we can forecast with some skill. But if you think you're on to what things may be like next season, no reason not to include them.
Just add your forecast to this thread. Dr. Klotzbach will post the 'Graycast' on or just before December 5. Getting your forecast in prior, without the help of those official forecast numbers, will look more authentic. You can post afterwards for the rest of December, just the same.
Enjoy.
HF 0300z22november
|
|
0 registered and 3 anonymous users are browsing this forum.
Moderator:
|
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
|
Rating:
Thread views: 68098
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note: This is
NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who
donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the
National Hurricane Center
G
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Edit
Reply
Quote
