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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
leadoff
      Mon Nov 21 2005 10:13 PM

14/9/4
ENSO I'm thinking will continue to run near neutral, with the persistent weak warm anomalies in the western Pacific. The AMO/PDO pairing is overall favorable, like it will remain for the coming decade or two. Not too keen on QBO phase, so ignoring that.
Based more on a climatology of past active seasons, this follow-on could go strong or weak. There is precedent for both. Since I don't see an El Nino coming on (though it's not possible to say with certainty how that will go), will go with an active season, but not as intensely active as the 2005 season was. I don't think we'll see quite the Western Atlantic focus that we did this year. Probably more normal with the Eastern Atlantic going active in August. Again, assuming ENSO neutral, MJO can activate and cluster the activity some.
Will be watching for the persistence of blocking type events. Even during the summer they can lower heights in the mid latitudes.. which weakens the trades and lets storms form more easily in the deep tropics.
The tendency for hurricanes to form/get far west and strike the U.S. this year according to Gray's bunch hinged on the Pacific SST profile, with a warm central/west Pacific keeping heights low in the west, and high in the east. If that persists, or very warm SSTs become apparent in the Atlantic in the spring... I'll tick everything up a notch. If El Nino starts coming on, or La Nina for that matter.. that'll change things a lot as well.
HF 0313z22november

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Nov 22 2005 03:22 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* 2006 HanKFranK Mon Nov 21 2005 10:13 PM
. * * Re: 2006 EwanM   Mon Dec 05 2005 02:09 PM
. * * Re: 2006 Margie   Fri Dec 02 2005 12:04 AM
. * * Re: 2006 Margie   Sat Dec 03 2005 11:05 AM
. * * Re: 2006 firestar_1   Thu Dec 01 2005 02:01 PM
. * * Re: 2006 swimaway19   Wed Nov 30 2005 08:00 PM
. * * Re: 2006 Bloodstar   Tue Nov 29 2005 04:50 AM
. * * Re: 2006 Lee-Delray   Tue Nov 22 2005 03:08 PM
. * * leadoff HanKFranK   Mon Nov 21 2005 10:13 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Tak   Tue Nov 29 2005 06:03 PM
. * * Re: leadoff NewWatcher   Mon Dec 05 2005 03:13 PM
. * * graycast HanKFranK   Mon Dec 05 2005 11:04 PM
. * * Re: graycast Margie   Tue Dec 06 2005 01:00 AM
. * * Re: graycast bobbutts   Tue Dec 06 2005 08:13 AM
. * * Re: graycast B.C.Francis   Tue Dec 06 2005 09:19 AM
. * * Re: graycast Beginner   Wed Dec 21 2005 12:52 PM
. * * Re: graycast Random Chaos   Wed Dec 28 2005 09:00 AM
. * * Re: graycast Margie   Tue Dec 06 2005 11:00 AM
. * * Re: graycast Tak   Tue Dec 06 2005 06:07 PM
. * * Re: graycast Margie   Mon Dec 12 2005 01:03 AM
. * * Re: leadoff UKCloudgazer   Wed Nov 23 2005 07:29 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Enrique   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Wed Nov 23 2005 10:34 PM
. * * 2006 AgnesOfHell   Mon Nov 28 2005 01:52 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Clark   Tue Nov 22 2005 03:35 PM
. * * 2006 leadoff rmbjoe1954   Tue Nov 22 2005 03:47 PM
. * * Re: 2006 leadoff NONAME   Tue Nov 22 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: 2006 leadoff Cycloneye11   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:40 AM
. * * Piece of Cake - Almost Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Piece of Cake - Almost CaneTrackerInSoFl   Tue Nov 22 2005 10:42 AM

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