HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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Re: Delta... why not?
Tue Nov 22 2005 09:04 PM
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sailor, because of the shallower than typical convection and ragged look the storm has under a less-than-normal anticyclonic flow aloft, the satellite algorithms don't see a tropical storm. however, if you look at cloud motions and the fact that it has an eye and partial convective ring, the idea that it's a depression is nuts. remember, those t-ratings run low when you've got a sheared or hybrid system.
with the tropical rating and gale force quickscat vectors, the nhc not classifying the system at the next advisory cycle would be prepostorous. almost certain they will. if it goes straight to tropical, it begets the question: why have a subtropical system classification? they rarely use it for hybrid systems.. usually waiting until the system is obviously tropical to start advisories on it. case and point--vince earlier this year, otto last year, peter in 2003, karen in 2001... the post-analyzed subtropical storm of 2000. really hope the nhc takes a more active stance on classifying subtropical cyclones when they're active, as opposed to after the fact.
been looking at the sst fields out there, and along the expected track they run pretty much in the upper 70s. 80F gets quoted as the threshold all the time, but a tropical storm or hurricane in a colder than normal, baroclinic, or high-than normal slp environment doesn't always need that number. when dealing with late season hybrids, the usual barotropic rules are out the window.
okay, 'nuff of that.
HF 0204z23november
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