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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 277 (Idalia) , Major: 277 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 277 (Idalia) Major: 277 (Idalia)
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!
      Sun Nov 27 2005 11:34 PM

the surface obs at least confirm the satellite estimates from earlier... suggest they were low if anything. this kind of quality control check suggests that the intensity estimates have been low all along, and that delta was quite possibly a hurricane for a while this morning and back on friday. can't think any precedent for a post-analysis upgrade of one of these late season storms like that, so it isn't likely and all that would do is pad the season numbers a little more anyway. the storm's profile is already deteriorating and it will likely be extratropical within the next three advisory cycles.
the broad low long forecast by models is coalescing west of the speeding, transitioning delta. some of the model profiles are also showing warming relative to the environment. however, overall the feature appears quite broad on the globals. it also appears that it will reside at a slightly higher latitude than delta hovered in during its meandering stage. it will have most of the week to wander about, but i don't think it will ever get a strong, focused, convective center or make much headway in transition. global models aren't showing much else in the realm of tropical activity--early december should look typically quiet. things are unlikely to get interesting during the winter unless some very strong blocking begins to come into play.
by the way, if you haven't posted a 2006 best guess and are interested, head over to the forum and put 'er up.
HF 2334z27november

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic MikeCAdministrator Sun Nov 27 2005 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 28 2005 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic Clark   Mon Nov 28 2005 11:21 PM
. * * Delta's Impacts Rich B   Mon Nov 28 2005 11:26 PM
. * * Re: Delta's Impacts Random Chaos   Tue Nov 29 2005 12:12 AM
. * * Can Epsilon Be Far Behind? Bloodstar   Tue Nov 29 2005 09:01 AM
. * * Epsilon Forms! Random Chaos   Tue Nov 29 2005 02:53 PM
. * * TS Epsilon ftlaudbob   Tue Nov 29 2005 03:12 PM
. * * Re: TS Epsilon Lee-Delray   Tue Nov 29 2005 03:20 PM
. * * Re: TS Epsilon Random Chaos   Tue Nov 29 2005 03:18 PM
. * * Re: TS Epsilon Margie   Tue Nov 29 2005 03:48 PM
. * * 96L HanKFranK   Tue Nov 29 2005 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 28 2005 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 28 2005 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic tpratch   Mon Nov 28 2005 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 28 2005 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic damejune2   Mon Nov 28 2005 02:21 PM
. * * Epsilon? Doombot!   Sat Nov 26 2005 10:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic Lee-Delray   Thu Nov 24 2005 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic Margie   Thu Nov 24 2005 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic Storm Hunter   Thu Nov 24 2005 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic ltpat228   Thu Nov 24 2005 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Nov 25 2005 03:12 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Nov 25 2005 02:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic Major7   Fri Nov 25 2005 03:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic Random Chaos   Fri Nov 25 2005 04:53 PM
. * * Bye, bye, Delta! Margie   Fri Nov 25 2005 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Bye, bye, Delta! Nanci   Sat Nov 26 2005 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Bye, bye, Delta! Beaumont, TX   Sun Nov 27 2005 04:09 AM
. * * Re: Bye, bye, Delta! Margie   Sun Nov 27 2005 07:26 AM
. * * Re: Bye, bye, Delta! La Nimo   Sun Nov 27 2005 04:34 AM
. * * Re: Bye, bye, Delta! HanKFranK   Sun Nov 27 2005 07:33 AM
. * * Re: Bye, bye, Delta! ltpat228   Sun Nov 27 2005 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Bye, bye, Delta! Lysis   Sun Nov 27 2005 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Bye, bye, Delta! Clark   Sun Nov 27 2005 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Bye, bye, Delta! dave foster   Sun Nov 27 2005 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Bye, bye, Delta! CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Nov 27 2005 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Bye, bye, Delta! HanKFranK   Sun Nov 27 2005 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Bye, bye, Delta! Clark   Mon Nov 28 2005 02:23 AM
. * * ep? HanKFranK   Mon Nov 28 2005 05:49 AM
. * * Re: ep? Margie   Mon Nov 28 2005 07:49 PM
. * * Re: ep? Thunderbird12   Mon Nov 28 2005 10:50 PM
. * * Re: ep? Random Chaos   Mon Nov 28 2005 12:37 PM
. * * Canary Islands and Delta Rich B   Sun Nov 27 2005 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Canary Islands and Delta Margie   Sun Nov 27 2005 10:05 PM
. * * Re: I THINK WE ALL KNOW THIS... HURRICANELONNY   Sun Nov 27 2005 09:49 PM
. * * A Sahara Storm? dave foster   Sun Nov 27 2005 05:25 PM
. * * Re: A Sahara Storm? ltpat228   Sun Nov 27 2005 06:41 PM
. * * A Fascinating Discussion Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Nov 27 2005 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Bye, bye, Delta! MapMaster   Sat Nov 26 2005 08:25 PM
. * * implied meanings HanKFranK   Sat Nov 26 2005 11:28 PM
. * * Re: implied meanings Beaumont, TX   Sun Nov 27 2005 05:46 PM
. * * Re: implied meanings Random Chaos   Sun Nov 27 2005 06:34 PM
. * * Re: implied meanings Margie   Sun Nov 27 2005 06:57 PM
. * * What To Do Now..? ltpat228   Sun Nov 27 2005 07:13 PM
. * * Re: implied meanings Random Chaos   Sun Nov 27 2005 12:06 AM
. * * Re: implied meanings Nanci   Sun Nov 27 2005 12:49 AM
. * * Re: implied meanings Old Sailor   Sun Nov 27 2005 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Bye, bye, Delta! ltpat228   Sat Nov 26 2005 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Bye, bye, Delta! Myles   Sat Nov 26 2005 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Bye, bye, Delta! GuppieGrouper   Sat Nov 26 2005 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Bye, bye, Delta! CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Nov 26 2005 04:45 PM
. * * seconds, anyone? HanKFranK   Sat Nov 26 2005 05:18 PM
. * * does the *East* Atlantic ever get hit by hurricanes/ vineyardsaker   Sat Nov 26 2005 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic Tak   Thu Nov 24 2005 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic Lee-Delray   Thu Nov 24 2005 04:22 PM

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