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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: graycast
      Tue Dec 06 2005 01:00 AM

Well when I learned, in the process of putting together a prediction for this thread, that their Dec numbers last year couldn't have been more wrong (11 / 6 / 3), after the year we just had, that eroded my confidence in their Dec predictions. I think I'll wait for their May update; at least that prediction was a little closer, even if they subsequently spent the entire season playing catch-up with the actual numbers.

How well has their Dec prediction done in prior years? Has it ever been close?

sometimes. they have past verification stats at the end of their forecast. -HF

I found it this morning in Jeff Masters blog:

"How good are these long-range hurricane forecasts issued in December? Last year, the December forecast called for an average 2005 hurricane season with 11 named storms, six of them becoming hurricanes. Obviously, the forecast was a bust--we had 26 named storms and 14 hurricanes. The updated forecast issued on May 31 of 2005 performed much better--15 named storms were forecast, with eight hurricanes. However, over the past five years (not including the forecast for the 2005 season), the skill of the December hurricane forecasts by the CSU team has been quite good--in four out of five years, the predicted number of named storms was within three of the actual number."

Also he had a really good summary. I'll post it below and if you don't want it in the forum feel free to delete it.

Edited by Margie (Tue Dec 06 2005 10:57 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* 2006 HanKFranK Tue Dec 06 2005 01:00 AM
. * * Re: 2006 EwanM   Mon Dec 05 2005 02:09 PM
. * * Re: 2006 Margie   Fri Dec 02 2005 12:04 AM
. * * Re: 2006 Margie   Sat Dec 03 2005 11:05 AM
. * * Re: 2006 firestar_1   Thu Dec 01 2005 02:01 PM
. * * Re: 2006 swimaway19   Wed Nov 30 2005 08:00 PM
. * * Re: 2006 Bloodstar   Tue Nov 29 2005 04:50 AM
. * * Re: 2006 Lee-Delray   Tue Nov 22 2005 03:08 PM
. * * leadoff HanKFranK   Mon Nov 21 2005 10:13 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Tak   Tue Nov 29 2005 06:03 PM
. * * Re: leadoff NewWatcher   Mon Dec 05 2005 03:13 PM
. * * graycast HanKFranK   Mon Dec 05 2005 11:04 PM
. * * Re: graycast Margie   Tue Dec 06 2005 01:00 AM
. * * Re: graycast bobbutts   Tue Dec 06 2005 08:13 AM
. * * Re: graycast B.C.Francis   Tue Dec 06 2005 09:19 AM
. * * Re: graycast Beginner   Wed Dec 21 2005 12:52 PM
. * * Re: graycast Random Chaos   Wed Dec 28 2005 09:00 AM
. * * Re: graycast Margie   Tue Dec 06 2005 11:00 AM
. * * Re: graycast Tak   Tue Dec 06 2005 06:07 PM
. * * Re: graycast Margie   Mon Dec 12 2005 01:03 AM
. * * Re: leadoff UKCloudgazer   Wed Nov 23 2005 07:29 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Enrique   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Wed Nov 23 2005 10:34 PM
. * * 2006 AgnesOfHell   Mon Nov 28 2005 01:52 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Clark   Tue Nov 22 2005 03:35 PM
. * * 2006 leadoff rmbjoe1954   Tue Nov 22 2005 03:47 PM
. * * Re: 2006 leadoff NONAME   Tue Nov 22 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: 2006 leadoff Cycloneye11   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:40 AM
. * * Piece of Cake - Almost Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Piece of Cake - Almost CaneTrackerInSoFl   Tue Nov 22 2005 10:42 AM

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