Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 467
Loc: Tucson, AZ
|
Re: Useful information...
Tue Dec 06 2005 04:36 AM
|
|
|
So the 4am Advisory came out, and Epsilon is still a Hurricane, though there's a break in the eyewall on the southeast (there's been weakness off and on throughout the day and evening). could Epsilon finally be weakening? I'm not holding my breath at this moment, mostly because as the discussion pointed out, the GFDL really REALLY likes this storm. It's keeping it as a hurricane for several days. Of course The forecasters won't go with a solo model, and I can't blame them. But this storm has already happily ignored every effort to dissapate it, so we shall see.
I wonder what the GFDL is 'seeing' that's caused it. Looking at the Graphic output, the storm weakens after 72 hours, then regains strength and accelerates to the NE, then starts drifting back to the southwest at the end, still as a hurricane. (well, GFDL takes it and moves it to cold core, then rapidly back to warm core according to phase analysis).
I'm not saying that will validate out, but if it does, I can only imagine the darth vader scream of 'nooooooooo' coming from the NHC. (that or their brains have long since turned to mush from trying to understand this 'Terminator' storm. (I know there have been storms that have lasted longer, but were they constantly predicted to go away, only to defy all predictions and projections?)
looking at the GFS out put, it seemingly dissapates Epsilon, at around 72 hours, but, 24 hours another low is built near where the storm would be if GFDL validated (off to the North East) and pushes it southwest as a fairly strong system. (looking at the phase analysis, the new storm is a 'cold core system according to GFS)
NOGAPS is doing something wacky, with the storm, looks like another low picked it up and absorbs it around 84 hours.
CMC is claiming that epsilon is nearly cold core right now... interesting.
Either way, almost all the models are predicting a low pressure out near the Azores in about 5 days.
This quote from the 4AM discussion made me smile:
"I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT."
Sums things up well, no?
-Mark
--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
|
|
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Edit
Reply
Quote
