The next 12 hours will be critical to whether Epsilon bites the dust or continues onward. The effects of some shear and drier air are being felt on the western half of the storm, though an eye feature and persistent moderately deep convection are still evident on satellite imagery. The trough has approached a bit closer to the storm but appears to have halted its forward progress. Some of the models are showing it fracturing, with a cutoff low sliding toward the Canaries (what HF mentioned), but it remains to be seen if this happens or if the trough just lifts out. Nevertheless, Epsilon is stuck just south of an ever-narrowing ridge axis and continuing SW as a result. If the ridge holds, Epsilon should keep going. That's not the forecast right now, but we'll know by sunrise tomorrow whether or not Epsilon will defy the odds yet again.
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Re: Ep's Epitaph..Part I?
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