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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

...going....
Wed Dec 07 2005 04:47 PM

maybe the nhc is dog-tired of tracking storms and felt like giving the backup boys a whirl. hpc did the 21z discussion.... and i'm thinking they erred just a little high.
the storm's symmetry and convection has deteriorated to a point not seen since its inception in late november... it's obviously starting to come apart now (finally). if it was my job (which it never will be) to tag an intensity i would have gone with 60kt... just under the 65kt it's been getting for the last 24hr or so with a much better signature. i mean... the forecaster admitted that the t-numbers were concentrated just below 4.0... and yeah i know this goes against the logic i have that t-numbers underrate hybrid systems... but that is more of a problem when they're in formative phases, not so much when they're winding down. the semicircle of the storm northwest of the eye is peeling off, the eye structure has elongated and essentially closed. from here the surface center will start trailing the convective burst which should keep stuck on the southeastern side... probably dragging the core of the storm on an eastward-bending path as shown in the official.

later on... probably late tomorrow or early friday... the center ought to decouple and slow to a crawl as shown in the official. when things start going bad for a late season hurricane they can fold up pretty quickly.... this one ought to be done some time friday, i'm thinking. remnant low should still be apparent through about early sunday. i don't buy the gfdl baroclinic-regeneration scenario.... think we're done in about 48.

now, as for the next cut-off low shown out there early next week.. no real change there either. it's persisting in the models that like it, but there isn't a uniform picture of its existence or longevity yet. i'm not biting yet.

HF 2147z07december (PH 64)

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Dec 07 2005 08:58 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Hurricane Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic	MikeC	Wed Dec 07 2005 04:47 PM
Couple of random notes...	Clark	Mon Dec 19 2005 05:52 PM
Re: Couple of random notes...	Margie	Tue Dec 20 2005 06:16 PM
Re: Couple of random notes...	Clark	Tue Dec 20 2005 09:48 PM
katrina report	HanKFranK	Thu Dec 22 2005 10:56 AM
Re: katrina report	Margie	Fri Dec 23 2005 10:16 AM
Re: Couple of random notes...	Cycloneye11	Tue Dec 20 2005 06:57 PM
Re: Hurricane Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic	swimaway19	Thu Dec 08 2005 09:12 PM
Epsilon	Doombot!	Sat Dec 03 2005 03:23 AM
make it stop....	HanKFranK	Sat Dec 03 2005 04:30 PM
Run away! Run away!	Margie	Sat Dec 03 2005 07:58 PM
Epsilon Endures	Ed Dunham	Sat Dec 03 2005 10:31 PM
Re: Epsilon Endures	Tak	Sun Dec 04 2005 07:25 AM
Re: Epsilon Endures	Random Chaos	Sun Dec 04 2005 09:39 AM
Re: Hangin Tough Epsilon..the little storm that could!	MapMaster	Sun Dec 04 2005 10:08 AM
Re: Hangin Tough Epsilon..the little storm that could!	Hugh	Sun Dec 04 2005 11:01 AM
Re: Hangin Tough Epsilon..the little storm that could!	Fuzzy	Sun Dec 04 2005 10:15 AM
You gotta love those NHC TPC discussions!	Margie	Sun Dec 04 2005 01:40 PM
Re: You gotta love those NHC TPC discussions!	Random Chaos	Sun Dec 04 2005 01:53 PM
Re: You gotta love those NHC TPC discussions!	Margie	Sun Dec 04 2005 01:58 PM
Re: You gotta love those NHC TPC discussions!	HanKFranK	Sun Dec 04 2005 02:48 PM
Here we go again	Margie	Mon Dec 05 2005 02:20 AM
Re: Here we go again	Doombot!	Mon Dec 05 2005 02:46 AM
Re: Here we go again	UKCloudgazer	Mon Dec 05 2005 03:08 AM
Re: Here we go again	Bloodstar	Mon Dec 05 2005 04:11 AM
AM note	HanKFranK	Mon Dec 05 2005 07:16 AM
Re: AM note	Bloodstar	Mon Dec 05 2005 05:47 PM
Useful information...	typhoon_tip	Mon Dec 05 2005 11:48 PM
Re: Useful information...	doug	Tue Dec 06 2005 11:48 AM
Re: Useful information...	Bloodstar	Tue Dec 06 2005 04:36 AM
the latest on Epsilon	Margie	Tue Dec 06 2005 08:35 AM
Re: the latest on Epsilon	HanKFranK	Tue Dec 06 2005 09:23 AM
Re: the latest on Epsilon	Random Chaos	Tue Dec 06 2005 11:10 AM
Re: the latest on Epsilon	Clark	Tue Dec 06 2005 12:17 PM
Re: the latest on Epsilon	Margie	Tue Dec 06 2005 06:00 PM
Re: the latest on Epsilon	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Tue Dec 06 2005 09:49 PM
Epsilon's future	Clark	Tue Dec 06 2005 10:10 PM
Re: Epsilon's future	Margie	Tue Dec 06 2005 11:41 PM
Epsilon, Zeta or nothing?	Doombot!	Wed Dec 07 2005 02:43 AM
Re: Epsilon, Zeta or nothing?	Random Chaos	Wed Dec 07 2005 08:02 AM
Re: Epsilon, Zeta or nothing?	Margie	Wed Dec 07 2005 01:19 PM
Re: Ep's Epitaph..Part I?	MapMaster	Wed Dec 07 2005 01:43 PM
Re: Ep's Epitaph..Part I?	Clark	Wed Dec 07 2005 03:45 PM
Re: Ep's Epitaph..Part I?	MapMaster	Wed Dec 07 2005 04:15 PM
...going....	HanKFranK	Wed Dec 07 2005 04:47 PM
Re: ...going....	Margie	Wed Dec 07 2005 04:57 PM
oddball watch	HanKFranK	Thu Dec 08 2005 01:04 AM
Re: oddball watch	Clark	Thu Dec 08 2005 10:51 AM
Re: oddball watch	Clark	Thu Dec 08 2005 09:25 PM
Watching Oddballs DELETED	ltpat228	Fri Dec 09 2005 06:12 PM
Re: Watching Oddballs	HanKFranK	Fri Dec 09 2005 11:37 PM
Re: Watching Oddballs	Clark	Sat Dec 10 2005 09:50 PM
Re: Watching Oddballs	HanKFranK	Sun Dec 11 2005 04:22 PM
Re: Watching Oddballs	danielw	Sun Dec 11 2005 08:11 PM
Re: Watching Oddballs	Clark	Sun Dec 11 2005 10:11 PM
Re: Watching Oddballs	Margie	Mon Dec 12 2005 11:48 AM
Re: Here we go?	MapMaster	Mon Dec 12 2005 06:27 PM
Re: Here we go?	Clark	Mon Dec 12 2005 06:55 PM
Re: Here we go?	Margie	Tue Dec 13 2005 09:54 AM
Re: Here we go?	HanKFranK	Tue Dec 13 2005 11:05 AM
Re: Here we go?	Clark	Tue Dec 13 2005 11:34 AM
Re: Here we go?	HanKFranK	Thu Dec 15 2005 08:08 PM
Re: Here we go?	Lee-Delray	Fri Dec 16 2005 07:45 AM
Re: Watching Oddballs	Doombot!	Mon Dec 12 2005 01:17 AM
Early Morning Watch	danielw	Thu Dec 08 2005 04:58 AM
Re: Early Morning Watch	Thunderbird12	Thu Dec 08 2005 10:24 AM
Re: Ep's Epitaph..Part I? In our dreams?...	Margie	Wed Dec 07 2005 02:46 PM
Re: Epsilon, Zeta or nothing?	Lee-Delray	Wed Dec 07 2005 08:12 AM
Re: Epsilon, Zeta or nothing?	ltpat228	Wed Dec 07 2005 09:50 AM
Re: Epsilon, Zeta or nothing?	HanKFranK	Wed Dec 07 2005 03:36 AM
Re: Epsilon's future	UKCloudgazer	Wed Dec 07 2005 02:40 AM
Re: the latest on Epsilon	Hootowl	Tue Dec 06 2005 11:52 AM
Re: AM note	Clark	Mon Dec 05 2005 09:57 AM
Re: AM note	Margie	Mon Dec 05 2005 04:30 PM
Re: AM note	Margie	Mon Dec 05 2005 09:12 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic	Lee-Delray	Wed Nov 30 2005 07:29 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic	Domino	Wed Nov 30 2005 05:27 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic	ltpat228	Wed Nov 30 2005 09:47 AM
A Reminder	Ed Dunham	Tue Nov 29 2005 09:46 PM
Re: A Reminder	Margie	Wed Nov 30 2005 10:34 AM
Re: A Reminder	Margie	Wed Nov 30 2005 02:37 PM
Re: A Reminder	Clark	Wed Nov 30 2005 04:22 PM
Re: A Reminder	Margie	Wed Nov 30 2005 06:17 PM
epsilon lookin' good	HanKFranK	Wed Nov 30 2005 06:24 PM
Re: epsilon lookin' good	Margie	Wed Nov 30 2005 08:17 PM
Re: epsilon lookin' good	Colleen A.	Wed Nov 30 2005 11:56 PM
Re: epsilon lookin' good	Margie	Thu Dec 01 2005 12:16 PM
Re: A Reminder	Tropics Guy	Wed Nov 30 2005 02:45 PM
Re: Dr. Gs forecast	MapMaster	Wed Nov 30 2005 03:51 PM
Re: Dr. Gs forecast	Lee-Delray	Wed Nov 30 2005 04:34 PM
Re: Dr. Gs forecast	Colleen A.	Thu Dec 01 2005 12:00 AM
Re: Dr. Gs forecast	doug	Thu Dec 01 2005 01:10 PM
Re: Dr. Gs forecast	Lee-Delray	Thu Dec 01 2005 01:54 PM
Re: Circulation	MapMaster	Thu Dec 01 2005 06:06 PM
Re: Circulation	Margie	Thu Dec 01 2005 09:17 PM
Re: Circulation	Margie	Fri Dec 02 2005 10:27 AM
Re: Circulation	Lee-Delray	Fri Dec 02 2005 10:40 AM
record keeping	HanKFranK	Fri Dec 02 2005 12:41 PM
Re: record keeping	Clark	Fri Dec 02 2005 05:05 PM
Re: EastPac???????	MapMaster	Fri Dec 02 2005 05:40 PM
Re: EastPac???????	Random Chaos	Fri Dec 02 2005 06:24 PM
Re: EastPac???????	damejune2	Fri Dec 02 2005 06:27 PM
Re: EastPac???????	Random Chaos	Fri Dec 02 2005 08:16 PM
Re: EastPac???????	Margie	Fri Dec 02 2005 09:24 PM
Re: EastPac???????	Random Chaos	Fri Dec 02 2005 11:23 PM
Re: EastPac???????	Margie	Fri Dec 02 2005 11:47 PM
Re: Typo	MapMaster	Fri Dec 02 2005 02:24 PM
Re: Typo	Margie	Fri Dec 02 2005 04:03 PM
Re: Circulation	Psyber	Fri Dec 02 2005 10:40 AM
Re: Circulation	weatherwatcher999	Thu Dec 01 2005 09:49 PM
Re: Circulation	Random Chaos	Thu Dec 01 2005 10:47 PM
Hurrican Epsilon	ftlaudbob	Fri Dec 02 2005 09:38 AM
Re: Epsilon outflow jet?	MapMaster	Thu Dec 01 2005 06:10 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic	HanKFranK	Tue Nov 29 2005 10:40 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic DELETED	Lee-Delray	Tue Nov 29 2005 10:44 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic	Random Chaos	Tue Nov 29 2005 10:55 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic	Margie	Tue Nov 29 2005 11:02 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic	Steve H1	Tue Nov 29 2005 11:53 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic	Margie	Tue Nov 29 2005 12:11 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic	Random Chaos	Tue Nov 29 2005 12:15 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic	weatherwatcher999	Tue Nov 29 2005 12:31 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic	Random Chaos	Tue Nov 29 2005 01:06 PM
delta in the canaries	HanKFranK	Tue Nov 29 2005 02:00 PM
Re: delta in the canaries	Frog	Tue Nov 29 2005 02:26 PM
Re: delta in the canaries	Clark	Tue Nov 29 2005 06:39 PM
Is it Over?	danielw	Tue Nov 29 2005 06:59 PM
Re: Is it Over?	Frog	Wed Nov 30 2005 05:02 AM
Re: delta in the canaries	typhoon_tip	Tue Nov 29 2005 02:16 PM
Re: delta in the canaries	Random Chaos	Tue Nov 29 2005 02:41 PM
Re: delta in the canaries	typhoon_tip	Tue Nov 29 2005 03:26 PM
Re: delta in the canaries	Margie	Tue Nov 29 2005 04:23 PM
Re: delta in the canaries	Rich B	Tue Nov 29 2005 04:46 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic	Doombot!	Tue Nov 29 2005 11:30 AM

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