Well, I am so new at this I didn't want to appear like a wishcaster and post, you know, oh, Zeta, before the end of the year, but I think it was about three days ago, or so, I starting thinking it would be possible, and then they mentioned it the very next day on the TWD, as possible. You know every day I have been trying to read the TWD and learning to spot various weather features on the sat images, and this is not the first cutoff low since that one that formed right after Epsilon that fizzled out; I've been watching all Dec. But it seemed to me that this one had more of a chance because (and this could be absolutely wrong because I am only really starting to understand the big picture) the weather pattern in the US has shifted a bit in the last part of this month.
I am not seeing much shear on the visual, but doesn't convection tend to be more shallow with these systems.
Yesterday you could see the surface low on quickscat to the SW, but couldn't see that on visible or IR (I can't bring up quickscat right now).
It is really pulling together so much faster than I thought possible. Yesterday I was thinking like Clark that time had pretty much run out, and that I'd (once again) made a wrong assumption thinking this one had more of a chance. But there it is. If it does make it to TS status, it would be so completely symmetric, in some abstract way, and appropriate for the season.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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