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TD 18 is next up to bat as Peter and Rose just are not making the big leagues this season. Odette may take another swing at it soon, however
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 9 (Nicholas) , Major: 24 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1078 (Michael) Major: 1078 (Michael)
22.1N 67.0W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1008mb
Moving:
Nnw at 5 mph
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25.2N 41.6W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1010mb
Moving:
Nw at 10 mph
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10.9N 38.1W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 1003mb
Moving:
W at 16 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: oh man...
      Fri Dec 30 2005 11:38 AM

To me, I didn't think it could make the quantum leap (in organization) that it did overnight and sustain it long enough to be classified as a bonafide threat -- yet alone a tropical storm. There's another trough to its west heading toward the vicinity of Zeta, though it looks like the bulk of it may be trying to lift north around the storm. I'll be interested to see what the NHC package has to say; my best guess is about 1-2 days of longevity with a slow motion to the NW at first replaced by a track toward the northeast thereafter.

Shear values were initially pretty bad for development -- 60 or 65kt from 850-200mb -- but as the upper-low "built down" to the surface (or at least helped spawn, in some manner, a surface feature) and started to devleop there, the vertical shear values dropped. They now sit in the vicinity of 20kt, which is much more favorable (and not uncommon). The development of Zeta is similar to the other three out there, with some subtle differences -- perhaps with a taste of the "forming on the NE side in the diffluent region of an upper-low" scenario that we saw with some of the western Atlantic's storms.

Nevertheless, I'm glad I didn't say zero percent chance a few days ago -- turns out to be 100%. I love tropical activity that affects no one as much as the next person, but this is just crazy! I certainly hope that every deep-latitude trough in the eastern Atlantic doesn't continue to spawn these features as we move into 2006; they are pretty common features for winter and spring out that way. I'm still a bit surprised by this development, so I'll try to spend some time figuring out why we've got it later today.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Merry Christmas No Hurricanes! MikeCAdministrator Fri Dec 30 2005 11:38 AM
. * * re storm off africa Robert   Thu Dec 29 2005 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Merry Christmas No Hurricanes! eduardo sanchez   Wed Dec 28 2005 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Merry Christmas No Hurricanes! Clark   Wed Dec 28 2005 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Merry Christmas No Hurricanes! Margie   Thu Dec 29 2005 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Merry Christmas No Hurricanes! MapMaster   Fri Dec 30 2005 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Merry Christmas No Hurricanes! MapMaster   Fri Dec 30 2005 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Merry Christmas No Hurricanes! eduardo sanchez   Thu Dec 29 2005 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Merry Christmas No Hurricanes! Clark   Thu Dec 29 2005 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Merry Christmas No Hurricanes! danielwAdministrator   Thu Dec 29 2005 11:04 PM
. * * oh man... HanKFranK   Fri Dec 30 2005 04:24 AM
. * * Re: oh man... Random Chaos   Fri Dec 30 2005 09:03 AM
. * * Re: oh man... Margie   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:22 AM
. * * Re: oh man... Clark   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:38 AM
. * * Zeta? Hurricane Dad   Fri Dec 30 2005 09:24 AM
. * * Re: Zeta? Random Chaos   Fri Dec 30 2005 09:40 AM
. * * Re: Zeta? MapMaster   Fri Dec 30 2005 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Zeta? Random Chaos   Fri Dec 30 2005 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Zeta? MapMaster   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:00 AM
. * * Tropical Storm Zeta Random Chaos   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Zeta MapMaster   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Zeta Margie   Fri Dec 30 2005 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Zeta HanKFranK   Fri Dec 30 2005 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Zeta Margie   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Zeta Random Chaos   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Zeta MapMaster   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Zeta Clark   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:55 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Zeta Random Chaos   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Merry Christmas No Hurricanes! Random Chaos   Mon Dec 26 2005 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Merry Christmas No Hurricanes! Clark   Mon Dec 26 2005 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Merry Christmas No Hurricanes! damejune2   Wed Dec 28 2005 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Merry Christmas No Hurricanes! MapMaster   Wed Dec 28 2005 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Merry Christmas No Hurricanes! Random Chaos   Wed Dec 28 2005 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Merry Christmas No Hurricanes! Clark   Wed Dec 28 2005 03:24 PM

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