Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

The 2024 season is officially over after a brutal number of landfals, a stunning rampup in the back-half and a record-early Cat 5.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 55 (Milton) , Major: 55 (Milton) Florida - Any: 55 (Milton) Major: 55 (Milton)

NEWS

CURRENT STORMS

None

HypeScale: 0

COMMUNICATION

STORM DATA

CONTENT

FOLLOW US

National Hurricane Center

You are not logged in. [Login]

Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Margie
Senior Storm Chaser

Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities

Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!
Tue Jan 03 2006 09:49 PM

Just walked in the door and just like I've done all season, made a beeline for the computer. The 10pm is out early.

Avila acknowledges Zeta is looking better, but once again the forecast is sticking with 55kts for "continuity." The latest quikscat pass missed both times, so this is reasonable. But in general I think battle fatigue must have set in. You can see on sat imagery that the shear has finally backed off, and as a result Zeta has strengthened enough to make some headway against what is left of the trough, which had been pretty stationary all day, and convection is occuring around the center. Some of the best-formed bands of convection in Zeta's lifetime (now wrapped half-way 'round) show both on sat and on the microwave pass from a couple hours ago.

Zeta is still moving between an area of strong shear to the south and less shear to the northwest. It doesn't appear that there will be any more n'ly component to the direction anytime soon (in fact if Zeta moves any further south they're going to have to readjust the floater image), so Zeta may not be able to take full advantage of the lower shear there, but regardless it seems there is another reason that Zeta will intensify:

Reviewing IR images from the last 24 hours it is clear the recent trough intensified Zeta. The discussion mentions this, but in the context of the oncoming trough, not the one that just passed:

...A CASE OF TROUGH INTERACTION AIDING INTENSIFICATION...

I'd be interested in hearing the basics of how this occurs (besides the fact that shear often does help develop convection). Does it have to be at a certain height or comparative direction? Because we saw today that the WSWly shear demolished the convection that had been built up by the shear from the trough earlier. What is unique about the shear assoc with a trough?

Post Extras

Print Post

Remind Me!

Notify Moderator

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Clark	Tue Jan 03 2006 09:49 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Lee-Delray	Thu Jan 05 2006 10:37 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Randrew	Thu Jan 05 2006 11:21 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Spoken	Tue Jan 03 2006 04:43 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Random Chaos	Tue Jan 03 2006 09:27 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	ltpat228	Tue Jan 03 2006 04:37 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Allison	Tue Jan 03 2006 04:45 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Lee-Delray	Tue Jan 03 2006 05:59 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	ltpat228	Tue Jan 03 2006 08:23 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	eduardo sanchez	Tue Jan 03 2006 05:54 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Margie	Tue Jan 03 2006 06:10 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Randrew	Tue Jan 03 2006 09:06 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Random Chaos	Tue Jan 03 2006 09:30 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Margie	Tue Jan 03 2006 09:49 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Clark	Wed Jan 04 2006 02:01 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Margie	Wed Jan 04 2006 11:45 AM
Zeta!?!	danielw	Wed Jan 04 2006 03:13 AM
Re: Zeta!?!	Margie	Wed Jan 04 2006 12:28 PM
Re: Zeta!?!	Clark	Wed Jan 04 2006 12:47 PM
Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005	Margie	Wed Jan 04 2006 01:53 PM
Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005	Randrew	Thu Jan 05 2006 04:17 AM
Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005	Randrew	Thu Jan 05 2006 04:25 AM
Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005	eduardo sanchez	Wed Jan 04 2006 06:04 PM
Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005	Margie	Wed Jan 04 2006 06:15 PM
Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005	Random Chaos	Wed Jan 04 2006 08:13 PM
[Jaws music]	Margie	Wed Jan 04 2006 09:09 PM
Re: [Jaws music]	Clark	Thu Jan 05 2006 02:27 AM
Re: [Jaws music]	Margie	Thu Jan 05 2006 11:48 AM
Re: [Jaws music]	Frog	Thu Jan 05 2006 01:23 PM
Re: [Jaws music]	Margie	Thu Jan 05 2006 01:57 PM
Are we there yet?	Margie	Thu Jan 05 2006 02:19 PM
Re: Are we there yet?	Randrew	Thu Jan 05 2006 03:25 PM
Re: Are we there yet?	eduardo sanchez	Thu Jan 05 2006 04:37 PM
Re: Are we there yet?	Frog	Thu Jan 05 2006 05:32 PM
Re: Are we there yet?	Lee-Delray	Thu Jan 05 2006 04:57 PM
Re: [Jaws music]	Randrew	Thu Jan 05 2006 04:31 AM
Re: [Jaws music]	Frog	Thu Jan 05 2006 06:03 AM
Re: [Jaws music]	Randrew	Thu Jan 05 2006 10:37 AM
Re: [Jaws music]	Clark	Thu Jan 05 2006 01:23 PM
Re: [Jaws music]	Domino	Thu Jan 05 2006 05:06 PM
Re: [Jaws music]	Clark	Thu Jan 05 2006 05:26 PM
Re: [Jaws music]	Frog	Thu Jan 05 2006 06:52 PM
Re: [Jaws music]	Clark	Thu Jan 05 2006 08:24 PM
Re: [Jaws music]	HanKFranK	Thu Jan 05 2006 11:12 PM
Re: [Jaws music]	Not Logged MM	Fri Jan 06 2006 11:28 AM
Brazilian Blob	Randrew	Fri Jan 06 2006 12:35 PM
Re: Brazilian Blob	HanKFranK	Fri Jan 06 2006 02:03 PM
2005 Hurricane Season Almost OVER!	Storm Hunter	Fri Jan 06 2006 03:28 PM
Ok, everybody...big collective sigh!	Margie	Fri Jan 06 2006 03:51 PM
Interesting Season	Randrew	Fri Jan 06 2006 04:42 PM
Re: [Jaws music]	Random Chaos	Wed Jan 04 2006 11:13 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Tue Jan 03 2006 09:57 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Margie	Tue Jan 03 2006 11:04 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Randrew	Tue Jan 03 2006 09:45 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Margie	Tue Jan 03 2006 10:59 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Doombot!	Sun Jan 01 2006 02:09 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	HanKFranK	Sun Jan 01 2006 03:54 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Margie	Sun Jan 01 2006 05:41 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Random Chaos	Mon Jan 02 2006 08:38 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Margie	Mon Jan 02 2006 09:03 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Clark	Mon Jan 02 2006 10:59 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Goosus	Tue Jan 03 2006 01:15 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	UKCloudgazer	Tue Jan 03 2006 03:53 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Mon Jan 02 2006 09:57 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	emackl	Fri Dec 30 2005 01:41 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	ChessieStorm	Fri Dec 30 2005 01:44 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Jenny	Fri Dec 30 2005 03:14 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Margie	Fri Dec 30 2005 03:54 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	eduardo sanchez	Fri Dec 30 2005 04:40 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Frog	Sat Dec 31 2005 05:56 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! DELETED	eduardo sanchez	Sat Dec 31 2005 06:18 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Random Chaos	Sat Dec 31 2005 09:50 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	HanKFranK	Sat Dec 31 2005 12:27 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Margie	Sat Dec 31 2005 02:40 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	HanKFranK	Sat Dec 31 2005 11:10 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Clark	Sun Jan 01 2006 01:59 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Doombot!	Sun Jan 01 2006 02:24 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	eduardo sanchez	Sun Jan 01 2006 09:13 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Rich B	Sun Jan 01 2006 06:47 AM
Modern Marvels	TDW	Sun Jan 01 2006 08:56 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Random Chaos	Sun Jan 01 2006 12:54 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Random Chaos	Fri Dec 30 2005 07:00 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Margie	Fri Dec 30 2005 07:44 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Clark	Fri Dec 30 2005 10:08 PM
Zeta, we hardly knew ya	Margie	Fri Dec 30 2005 11:12 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Clark	Fri Dec 30 2005 11:15 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Multi-Decadal Signal	Sat Dec 31 2005 04:22 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	ltpat228	Sat Dec 31 2005 12:34 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Hugh	Sat Dec 31 2005 01:03 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	eduardo sanchez	Sat Dec 31 2005 05:25 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Margie	Fri Dec 30 2005 11:19 PM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	Random Chaos	Fri Dec 30 2005 11:54 AM
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Fri Dec 30 2005 12:45 PM

Extra information

0 registered and 1068 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:

Thread views: 64367

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center