Oh brother -- it consolidated a lot quicker than I thought it would. Looks like a Cat 4 now. Check out the latest IR (attached).
Per the latest JTWC prog, intensity may be capped (albeit, at 135kts!) by lack of a good outflow channel. After seeing the GOM storms this past season we all know how important outflow can be in ramping up and maintaining intensity. Also noted that it may have a hard time maintaining that intensity. It appears that regardless it is going to strike Hong Kong area as a very strong storm. I haven't seen anything much about it on our news here, but since they have more warning than we did with Katrina, I hope they are able to to make some good preparations. I just can't get all those images of skyscrapers out of my mind.
* * * * * The rate of intensity increase looks to have suddenly come to a halt, although the IR is quite symmetric, but it appears on CIMMS upper level wind analysis that an outflow channel is developing, and conditions for the next 12 hours look even better for strengthening, so I still think that late this evening and tomorrow morning we'll be looking at 130kts sustained (1min avg) or more. JMA's intensity forecasts are very much lower than JTWC. Hong Kong Observatory has it curving east towards the Taiwan Straight and missing Hong Kong, but the reliable models show it dead on for Hong Kong, so I hope that people there are getting the right message and preparing.
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