Listen, Tiff, this will fall apart rapidly as it heads inland, and so if he can't get a flight out, just go inland.
The main concerns will be storm surge, so the tunnels will be flooded, and also low-lying areas, and then the stronger winds aloft against the high rises. It will be much safer inland.
It is better to prepare now as if there was the chance of a direct hit as a strong storm, and then be glad later if it weakens before landfall, or curves east (not terribly likely but it is possible).
Note: Hong Kong Observatory is still only forecasting max winds of 33kt from the storm. And JMA is forecasting less than 85kt at landfall. JTWC #25 has it at 130 kts currently and brings it up to 145 kts max within 24 hrs. The graphic and prog are not on their web site yet.
* * * * * * *
9pm update -- the next forecast will be out in an hour, and it will be the most interesting one, for a couple of reasons. First, the intensity forecast, as the steady state seems to be ending, and secondly, and more interesting, the move north has started and it appears before crossing 115E. So this may mean a shift in the track forecast, but if so, whether to the east or the west, I don't know. The latest model runs have diverged just a little bit, but the more reliable ones actually shift the track to the west a bit, which would still be bad for HKG.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sun May 14 2006 10:15 PM)
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