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Recon has departed Keesler to check out #93L in the SW Gulf. #92L is now just inland along SE GA coast. June systems can dump lots of rain.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 297 (Idalia) , Major: 297 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 297 (Idalia) Major: 297 (Idalia)
 


General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing
      Sun May 14 2006 10:50 PM

#26 is out, and no change to the point of landfall. Current intensity is set at 135kts to increase to max of 140kts.

Hong Kong will start to feel tropical storm force winds by early Wednesday morning, but wind will become gusty and the weather will worsen about 12 hours before that, by Tuesday evening.

The typhoon may speed up as it approaches land and so these effects could occur earlier. To give an example, with Katrina, they were 12 hours earlier than forecast three days before. So unless that's a really early aft flight Tiff he should be looking for an earlier one. And if he can't fly off the island, rent a car and drive off -- get off the islands and get inland.

Since JTWC did not change the track significantly, and since some of the good models are showing a landfall slightly more to the west, this looks like a bad one. Looks like it could hit at a pretty high intensity. Because of the monsoon there is no dry air to cause dry air intrusion (thanks for letting me know that, Steve)...the only inhibiting factor besides the timing of ERCs is the cooler water offshore, and that effect will be minimized if the speed increases. And if it is coming in at 130, 125 kts, well then it wouldn't make much difference if it weakened to 115 kts as that would still be devestating.

This hasn't been in the news much, and I can only hope that people there are preparing for the worst -- and 'worst' may be worse than anything we've seen here by orders of magnitude.

* * * * * * *

Update -- here is the prog, and it is interesting:

A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.

B. STY 02W HAD CONTINUED TO SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD AND IS JUST NOW STARTING TO SHIFT POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTRO- PICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, COAMPS, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, EGRR, TCLAPS AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.

C. STY 02W WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW INCLUDING AN EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300NM EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND IT WILL UNDERGO RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND BEGIN TO UNDERGO THE EARLY STAGES OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.

That's very good news. That must be quite a stretch of cool water offshore. I've only been watching since last July but needless to say I've never heard of anything like that. I don't know what else would additionally factor into the transition (lack of experience...if any mets are reading this thread and could post some more detail on an explanation it would be very much appreciated).


--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TS Chanchu Domino Sun May 14 2006 10:50 PM
. * * Re: TS Chanchu Domino   Thu May 11 2006 07:19 AM
. * * Re: TS Chanchu Domino   Thu May 11 2006 11:37 AM
. * * Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Domino   Thu May 11 2006 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Barbiemanila   Fri May 12 2006 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Margie   Fri May 12 2006 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun May 14 2006 08:24 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Margie   Sun May 14 2006 09:52 AM
. * * Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 03:18 PM
. * * Philippines Aftermath for Chanchu aka Caloy Domino   Sun May 14 2006 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Hannu   Mon May 15 2006 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Deep Surge   Mon May 15 2006 07:07 PM
. * * Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Mon May 15 2006 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Clark   Mon May 15 2006 11:59 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Deep Surge   Tue May 16 2006 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 07:18 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 10:05 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 05:30 PM
. * * Chanchu update malt-teaser   Wed May 17 2006 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu update Margie   Thu May 18 2006 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu update malt-teaser   Wed May 17 2006 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Hannu   Tue May 16 2006 06:52 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun May 14 2006 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing HanKFranK   Sun May 14 2006 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Clark   Mon May 15 2006 02:03 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Mon May 15 2006 10:16 AM
. * * lesser storm HanKFranK   Mon May 15 2006 03:35 PM
. * * Re: lesser storm malt-teaser   Mon May 15 2006 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing alyssum   Mon May 15 2006 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing malt-teaser   Mon May 15 2006 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing alyssum   Tue May 16 2006 12:19 AM
. * * Chanchu is done Margie   Mon May 15 2006 08:12 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 11:24 PM
. * * Have handheld weather station, will travel? Margie   Fri May 12 2006 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri May 12 2006 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel? Margie   Fri May 12 2006 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel? Domino   Fri May 12 2006 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy hockeyucf   Thu May 11 2006 12:22 PM

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