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Recon has departed Keesler to check out #93L in the SW Gulf. #92L is now just inland along SE GA coast. June systems can dump lots of rain.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 297 (Idalia) , Major: 297 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 297 (Idalia) Major: 297 (Idalia)
 


General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing
      Mon May 15 2006 02:03 AM

Well, the storm beginning ET just prior to landfall can be both good and bad, depending on where the track actually ends up going. The predictability of where the worst effects of the storm will be felt inherently goes down during ET given the transformations occurring within the storm. Specifically, where the strongest winds are moves outward from the center of the cyclone (even though their intensity may decrease) while the outer wind field actually spins up. The storm should be moving fast enough that precipitation amounts aren't too much of a concern, but that's not all good. Instead, this could enhance the potential for high waves to the east of the center, particularly given the intensity of the storm. You see this a lot with ET events, but also to a lesser extent with intense hurricanes accelerating to the north -- think, on a lesser scale, what happened with Dennis and Katrina last year. I'm not saying that will happen here; just something to watch out for. Needless to say, Hong Kong certainly wants to end up on the western side of the cyclone, as the impacts of most transitioning storms start to become even a bit more exaggerated toward the right (here, east) side of the cyclone.

A couple of interesting aspects from a scientific perspective...
1) SSTs all the way to the coastline are at least 26C, not necessarily sufficient to maintain a super typhoon but not enough to bring about any substantial weakening either (given the projected forward speed). There is a pretty sharp SST gradient from here on out, though. Also, as it moves northward, it'll be encountering increasingly strong shear associated with the midlatitude westerlies; this coupled with the SST gradient is likely what is resulting in the model predictions of ET.
2) The record low latitude for an ET event in the Atlantic is held by Michelle in 2001, which started to undergo ET around 20-21N and completed it in the 27-28N range. Looking at the model consensus phase evolution for this system, it looks like ET is projected to begin at about 21-22N and complete anywhere in the 25-27N range. I don't know what the record for the NW Pacific is, but it's not likely to be much further south (if at all). The S. Pacific and S. Indian Ocean are different; ET occurs around 20S quite frequently in those basins owing to the penetration of midlatitude troughs closer to the equator in the S. Hemisphere.

It's going to be a tight one for Hong Kong here over the next few days. Here's hoping for the best for everyone in the region.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TS Chanchu Domino Mon May 15 2006 02:03 AM
. * * Re: TS Chanchu Domino   Thu May 11 2006 07:19 AM
. * * Re: TS Chanchu Domino   Thu May 11 2006 11:37 AM
. * * Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Domino   Thu May 11 2006 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Barbiemanila   Fri May 12 2006 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Margie   Fri May 12 2006 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun May 14 2006 08:24 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Margie   Sun May 14 2006 09:52 AM
. * * Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 03:18 PM
. * * Philippines Aftermath for Chanchu aka Caloy Domino   Sun May 14 2006 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Hannu   Mon May 15 2006 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Deep Surge   Mon May 15 2006 07:07 PM
. * * Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Mon May 15 2006 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Clark   Mon May 15 2006 11:59 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Deep Surge   Tue May 16 2006 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 07:18 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 10:05 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 05:30 PM
. * * Chanchu update malt-teaser   Wed May 17 2006 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu update Margie   Thu May 18 2006 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu update malt-teaser   Wed May 17 2006 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Hannu   Tue May 16 2006 06:52 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun May 14 2006 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing HanKFranK   Sun May 14 2006 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Clark   Mon May 15 2006 02:03 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Mon May 15 2006 10:16 AM
. * * lesser storm HanKFranK   Mon May 15 2006 03:35 PM
. * * Re: lesser storm malt-teaser   Mon May 15 2006 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing alyssum   Mon May 15 2006 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing malt-teaser   Mon May 15 2006 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing alyssum   Tue May 16 2006 12:19 AM
. * * Chanchu is done Margie   Mon May 15 2006 08:12 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 11:24 PM
. * * Have handheld weather station, will travel? Margie   Fri May 12 2006 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri May 12 2006 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel? Margie   Fri May 12 2006 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel? Domino   Fri May 12 2006 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy hockeyucf   Thu May 11 2006 12:22 PM

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