Morning -- haven't done more than take a quick look. Chanchu looks done. Strong shear has lopped off all convection on the northern side. It appears to be a cold front? [edit -- both wrong guesses -- just cold water! but there could be a trough, because actually outflow still looks excellent -- I just can't tell]
I should have realized this last night, because before #26 came out, Chanchu looked like it had peaked and was on the downswing, the CDO was starting to become lopsided, and I did say the steady state had changed, but then when they had the intensity increasing for another 24 hours, I thought that I wasn't seeing it right.
Anyway NRL still labels the images at 120kts but no way...doesn't even look to be more than around 105kts now, and once it moves a little further north if the convection continues to erode at this same rate, around the eyewall, then that is it I would guess. I have never seen a strong hurricane get mowed down like this, so I don't know exactly what to expect.
Thanks much Clark -- would definitely be interested in hearing some feedback on what is going on with Chanchu and going back over the last 24 hours how this could have been seen on the sat images (everything is a learning experience).
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