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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing
      Mon May 15 2006 02:16 PM Attachment (349 downloads)

Ok I found out that the water temps are very cold this early in the season (image attached) and there isn't much heat potential above about 16 or 17N. This must be why the models showed the transition to ET.

So...definitely the colder temps are having an effect, especially with the slower speed, and that is why the disappearing convection to the north, and why it did not appear to be terribly sheared on sat images.

Regarding the prev posting ("HK is a concrete jungle...not a collection of wooden beach houses on a sandy shore. Secondly, the storms over here do not get near as strong as they can in the Gulf. ").

The northern Gulf Coast is is home to many people who live in permanent housing, not "beach houses." It has been populated for over 200 years. The surge went a considerable distance inland, not just on the beachfront. The idea that there was so much destruction because there were no permanent structures is completely wrong. There was so much destruction, because surge can cause so much destruction.

Chanchu is evidence that storms do get as strong there as in the GOM. It is just early in the season and the water temps are not as warm, so that strength couldn't be maintained above 20N. That does not mean Hong Kong is impervious to strong TC, and the "forest of skyscrapers" is particularly vulnerable to winds, which are stronger above the ground. It is always best to plan for the worst case when the outcome is not certain.

Warning #28 is out and the official track is shifted along with NOGAPS to the east of Hong Kong, putting them on the back side of the typhoon, which is now looking to make landfall around Shanwei, around 8 or 9 pm local time on Wednesday evening.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TS Chanchu Domino Mon May 15 2006 02:16 PM
. * * Re: TS Chanchu Domino   Thu May 11 2006 11:19 AM
. * * Re: TS Chanchu Domino   Thu May 11 2006 03:37 PM
. * * Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Domino   Thu May 11 2006 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Barbiemanila   Sat May 13 2006 02:16 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Margie   Sat May 13 2006 03:11 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun May 14 2006 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Margie   Sun May 14 2006 01:52 PM
. * * Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 07:18 PM
. * * Philippines Aftermath for Chanchu aka Caloy Domino   Sun May 14 2006 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 07:11 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Hannu   Mon May 15 2006 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Deep Surge   Mon May 15 2006 11:07 PM
. * * Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Clark   Tue May 16 2006 03:59 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Deep Surge   Tue May 16 2006 04:49 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 11:18 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 02:18 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 09:30 PM
. * * Chanchu update malt-teaser   Wed May 17 2006 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu update Margie   Fri May 19 2006 03:22 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu update malt-teaser   Wed May 17 2006 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Hannu   Tue May 16 2006 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 08:48 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun May 14 2006 10:01 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing HanKFranK   Mon May 15 2006 03:01 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Mon May 15 2006 02:50 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Clark   Mon May 15 2006 06:03 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Mon May 15 2006 02:16 PM
. * * lesser storm HanKFranK   Mon May 15 2006 07:35 PM
. * * Re: lesser storm malt-teaser   Mon May 15 2006 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing alyssum   Mon May 15 2006 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing malt-teaser   Mon May 15 2006 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing alyssum   Tue May 16 2006 04:19 AM
. * * Chanchu is done Margie   Mon May 15 2006 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Mon May 15 2006 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Mon May 15 2006 03:24 AM
. * * Have handheld weather station, will travel? Margie   Fri May 12 2006 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri May 12 2006 09:26 PM
. * * Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel? Margie   Fri May 12 2006 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel? Domino   Sat May 13 2006 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy hockeyucf   Thu May 11 2006 04:22 PM

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