Ok I found out that the water temps are very cold this early in the season (image attached) and there isn't much heat potential above about 16 or 17N. This must be why the models showed the transition to ET.
So...definitely the colder temps are having an effect, especially with the slower speed, and that is why the disappearing convection to the north, and why it did not appear to be terribly sheared on sat images.
Regarding the prev posting ("HK is a concrete jungle...not a collection of wooden beach houses on a sandy shore. Secondly, the storms over here do not get near as strong as they can in the Gulf. ").
The northern Gulf Coast is is home to many people who live in permanent housing, not "beach houses." It has been populated for over 200 years. The surge went a considerable distance inland, not just on the beachfront. The idea that there was so much destruction because there were no permanent structures is completely wrong. There was so much destruction, because surge can cause so much destruction.
Chanchu is evidence that storms do get as strong there as in the GOM. It is just early in the season and the water temps are not as warm, so that strength couldn't be maintained above 20N. That does not mean Hong Kong is impervious to strong TC, and the "forest of skyscrapers" is particularly vulnerable to winds, which are stronger above the ground. It is always best to plan for the worst case when the outcome is not certain.
Warning #28 is out and the official track is shifted along with NOGAPS to the east of Hong Kong, putting them on the back side of the typhoon, which is now looking to make landfall around Shanwei, around 8 or 9 pm local time on Wednesday evening.
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